Covid-19

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Jostate

Bluecolla's sock
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https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1255876733007532038
At risk of sounding @RxCowboy I'll say one thing I've discovered in this whole news item is there are a couple of Governors who aren't bad looking. The South Dakota Governor is winning but most of the pics of her online make her look a little crazy because much of the media doesn't like her approach to the lock down so they try to show her at her worst.
1588259751963.png


BTW, I wonder how many pics they had to sort through to find this one when trying to make her look crazy:
1588260065496.png
 
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Bowers2

Stackin' Joe's Cups
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/california-governor-intends-to-close-all-state-beaches-and-parks-police-memo-says/ar-BB13pk8K?ocid=spartanntp


Newport Beach in Orange County saw about 90,000 beachgoers last weekend despite the urging of officials to follow the state's stay-home order. On Tuesday, Newport Beach's City Council voted to keep its beaches open, with additional enforcement of physical distancing.



An Orange County board of supervisors member pushed back on Newsom's expected announcement, calling it an "overreaction."
In a statement late Wednesday, Orange County Supervisor Don Wagner acknowledged Newsom has the authority to shutter the state's beaches, but called the decision "not wise."

"Medical professionals tell us the importance of fresh air and sunlight in fighting infectious diseases, including mental health benefits," he wrote.

"Moreover, Orange County citizens have been cooperative with California state and county restrictions thus far. I fear that this overreaction from the state will undermine that cooperative attitude and our collective efforts to fight the disease, based on the best available medical information."
Apparently Elon Musk ranted about the CA government on his earnings call. When I agree with Elon Musk on government overreach, you know it's a weird time.
 
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llcoolw

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Feb 7, 2005
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Good lord. One of the first restaurants you come to after you pull out of my edition is a McD's. I haven't eatentered there in 3 years. Can't imagine rushing out to go there.
I admit it. I never locked down in the first place. I’ve been speeding all over gods creation eating at every restaurant that would serve me. And it’s been AWESOME! Everyone should stay home another month. Heck, I broke the 2 hour barrier from Dallas to Okc.
 

jetman

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I admit it. I never locked down in the first place. I’ve been speeding all over gods creation eating at every restaurant that would serve me. And it’s been AWESOME! Everyone should stay home another month. Heck, I broke the 2 hour barrier from Dallas to Okc.
2 hours? That's impressive. I thought at the beginning of this that cops were going to ignore speeders, but now I'm seeing people pulled over all time again on I-35. So much for that.

We still hit up Chick fila once a week and pizza every other week, but for the most part have been eating at home. It's actually been kind of good for us. My wife and I used to spend too much on going out to eat.
 

Donnyboy

Lettin' the high times carry the low....
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I admit it. I never locked down in the first place. I’ve been speeding all over gods creation eating at every restaurant that would serve me. And it’s been AWESOME! Everyone should stay home another month. Heck, I broke the 2 hour barrier from Dallas to Okc.
 

oks10

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2 hours? That's impressive. I thought at the beginning of this that cops were going to ignore speeders, but now I'm seeing people pulled over all time again on I-35. So much for that.

We still hit up Chick fila once a week and pizza every other week, but for the most part have been eating at home. It's actually been kind of good for us. My wife and I used to spend too much on going out to eat.
Our neighborhood has lined up a food truck for almost every evening which has been great for my tastebuds but terrible for my wallet and my waistline. :D
 

PanhandleCowboy

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https://twitter.com/Forbes/status/1255889298886406144
It is interesting that it went down to 61000 after initially being estimated at 80000 by the CDC.

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S. 2017-2018, highest death toll in 40 years

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Last fall and winter, the U.S. went through one of the most severe flu seasons in recent memory. It was driven by a kind of flu that tends to put more people in the hospital and cause more deaths, particularly among young children and the elderly.

The season peaked in early February. It was mostly over by the end of March, although some flu continued to circulate.

Making a bad year worse, the flu vaccine didn’t work very well. Experts nevertheless say vaccination is still worth it, because it makes illnesses less severe and save lives.

“I’d like to see more people get vaccinated,” Redfield told the AP at an event in New York. “We lost 80,000 people last year to the flu.”

CDC officials do not have exact counts of how many people die from flu each year. Flu is so common that not all flu cases are reported, and flu is not always listed on death certificates. So the CDC uses statistical models, which are periodically revised, to make estimates.

Fatal complications from the flu can include pneumonia, stroke and heart attack.

CDC officials called the 80,000 figure preliminary, and it may be slightly revised. But they said it is not expected to go down.

It eclipses the estimates for every flu season going back to the winter of 1976-1977. Estimates for many earlier seasons were not readily available.

Last winter was not the worst flu season on record, however. The 1918 flu pandemic, which lasted nearly two years, killed more than 500,000 Americans, historians estimate.

It’s not easy to compare flu seasons through history, partly because the nation’s population is changing. There are more Americans — and more elderly Americans — today than in decades past, noted Dr. Daniel Jernigan, a CDC flu expert.
 
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SLVRBK

Johnny 8ball's PR Manager
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In the first two weeks? That proves they were wrong!

Read the paper.
I remember hearing something similar but I can't find where that came from. If you look at the paper they put out on this in mid March, their estimates are vastly different from that and actually don't look too far off (that surprised me). The table below is all of the policy options from most to least restrictive (happy to dive into each one, but UK is most similar to the third column). They currently have 26k deaths and their estimates run through the fall (I believe November in this table). If anything, they underestimated UK deaths.

View attachment 80168
@OSUPsych, selection of reports at the time. Widely reported that the 2.2 million number is what led to the gov't enforced shutdowns.

@RxCowboy where have I stated they were wrong? IC had been conducting studies since January, the March model was #6 or #7, so it's not like this was a study completed in the first 2 weeks but was based on what was seen in China and Italy. Things change over time, variables come into play, etc. The only point I have made is that the big numbers for US and UK are what guided elected leadership to the decisions they made.

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behavior, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months. In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the G.B. and U.S. populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic… In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in G.B. and 2.2 million in the U.S., not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.
https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19

“The world is facing the most serious public health crisis in generations. Here we provide concrete estimates of the scale of the threat countries now face. We use the latest estimates of severity to show that policy strategies which aim to mitigate the epidemic might halve deaths and reduce peak healthcare demand by two-thirds, but that this will not be enough to prevent health systems being overwhelmed. More intensive, and socially disruptive interventions will therefore be required to suppress transmission to low levels. It is likely such measures — most notably, large scale social distancing — will need to be in place for many months, perhaps until a vaccine becomes available.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/1...2-million-covid-19-deaths-in-us-510000-in-uk/

The Imperial College London group reported that if nothing was done by governments and individuals and the pandemic remained uncontrolled, 510,000 would die in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States over the course of the outbreak.

These kinds of numbers are deeply concerning for countries with top-drawer health-care systems. They are terrifying for less-developed countries, global health experts say.

If Britain and the United States pursued more-ambitious measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, to slow but not necessarily stop the epidemic over the coming few months, they could reduce mortality by half, to 260,000 people in the United Kingdom and 1.1 million in the United States.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-us-and-uk-coronavirus-strategies/ar-BB11jVNP

The study says "the most effective mitigation strategy" would still lead to hospitals -- even at surge capacity -- needing eight times as many intensive care unit beds as they could provide in the UK. Yet the study also notes that "optimal mitigation policies" -- such as combining the home isolation of suspected cases, home quarantine of those living with suspected cases and social distancing among the elderly and others at high risk of severe disease -- might reduce peak health care demand in the UK by two-thirds and deaths by half.
"For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option," the report concludes.
For the study, researchers used a simulation model that was originally developed to support pandemic flu planning and modified it to examine the impact of certain scenarios for the coronavirus pandemic. Their models show that under a mitigation strategy: "even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US." It was not immediately clear what length of time researchers assumed to be the full course of the pandemic.

The study concludes that the suppression strategy will likely lead to the disease quickly spreading again once these measures are lifted, and that such measures will be needed periodically until a vaccine is found. It says: "The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package -- or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission -- will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) -- given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-uk-model-study/index.html