Covid-19

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Dec 18, 2019
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Jenks :(

I know it was a tough decision for the Superintendent. She is a wonderful and dedicated leader. And I know she did not come to this decision lightly, but a small minority in the teachers union pushed for distance learning.

What is interesting is that I think if this decision would have come down to a school board vote, I think in-person classes may still have been in the cards for Jenks students. At least two board members would have voted no.

I know you cannot appease everyone in the district, but I disagree strongly with her on this issue... but I still greatly respect her and am glad she is the Superintendent.
It’s on the Stillwater agenda for tomorrow night. Where does this crap end? How are families where both parents work or single parent households supposed to deal with it? It’s getting ridiculous.
 

TheMonkey

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That’s just it. We don’t know. I think it’s possible masks are making things worse for a number of reasons. Mainly user error and the false sense that masks are a cure all. Next time you’re out look at all the filthy masks being worn. I did that this morning based on what I’ve been hearing and it was really eye opening.
Circling back to this point. A counterpoint is wearing masks (and even adding goggles) is a social cue that reminds people to keep their distance.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-global-face-mask-adoption/

Pedestrians in Italy increased their physical distance when wearing face coverings

1596508886094.png
 
May 31, 2007
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Double-checked the report and there are only 3 European countries listed as early mask wearers: Slovakia, Bosnia, and Czechia (Czech Republic). Bosnia has had a recent uptick. The other two have maintained low numbers.
Not sure what the relevance of that is to the current spikes in the countries I mentioned. France has been pushing masks since April and I’d imagine the rest have been doing so long enough to precede the spike.
Circling back to this point. A counterpoint is wearing masks (and even adding goggles) is a social cue that reminds people to keep their distance.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-global-face-mask-adoption/

Pedestrians in Italy increased their physical distance when wearing face coverings

View attachment 84477
Interesting that there is a school of thought that masks magnify social distancing. I’ve certainly found the opposite to be the case. I think others here have chimed in and feel the same way. In fact I’m pretty shocked by that viewpoint based on my firsthand experience. When I go places now those markers signifying 6 feet of distance are worn out and barely visible. And I see no compliance with those whatsoever. Maybe I’m in a dream world or something and what I’m seeing isn’t matching the reality. I’m certain open to that.
 

TheMonkey

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Not sure what the relevance of that is to the current spikes in the countries I mentioned.
The relevance is the countries you mentioned weren’t considered early adopters of masks.
Interesting that there is a school of thought that masks magnify social distancing. I’ve certainly found the opposite to be the case.
Once again, you’re calling on anecdotal evidence. There’s too much confirmation bias for that to be reliable. I didn’t reference a “school of thought.” It is a study using scientific methodology. Maybe a small sample size, but much more reliable than individual observations and opinions.
 

wrenhal

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That’s just it. We don’t know. I think it’s possible masks are making things worse for a number of reasons. Mainly user error and the false sense that masks are a cure all. Next time you’re out look at all the filthy masks being worn. I did that this morning based on what I’ve been hearing and it was really eye opening.
Circling back to this point. A counterpoint is wearing masks (and even adding goggles) is a social cue that reminds people to keep their distance.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-global-face-mask-adoption/

Pedestrians in Italy increased their physical distance when wearing face coverings

View attachment 84477
Not at Walmart or convenience stores here in Stillwater. People think they can basically stand right on top of you when they have a mask on.

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
 

Birry

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The relevance is the countries you mentioned weren’t considered early adopters of masks.

Once again, you’re calling on anecdotal evidence. There’s too much confirmation bias for that to be reliable. I didn’t reference a “school of thought.” It is a study using scientific methodology. Maybe a small sample size, but much more reliable than individual observations and opinions.
What does being an early adopter of masks have to do with spikes that are happening right now? If people are testing positive now wouldn’t that mean they contracted the virus recently enough that it happened during widespread mask use? I guess I’m confused as to why you are so focused on these early adopter countries if the topic is spikes in mid July to now.

As to the anecdotal thing, yes and I never said otherwise. There’s no way that there is a reliable study out there that says whether people magnify their adherence to social distancing based on seeing people wearing masks. So anecdotal is as good as anything else right now. And I’ll be honest with you, I’m a pretty open minded guy but if a study did come out that said people were magnifying their adherence to social distancing due to the visual cues of masks I wouldn’t believe it. Anecdotal or not, my personal experience in this instance is just too overwhelming in the other direction. Maybe if someone is wearing a bizarre contraption people might steer clear. Ha!
 
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https://twitter.com/USATODAY/status/1290639253718867970
Here’s the full quote:

“Trump: What’s the definition of control? Yeah, right now I think it’s under control. I’ll tell you what....

Interviewer: (Interrupts) How? A thousand Americans are dying a day.

Trump: They are dying. That’s true, and you have, it is what it is. But that doesn’t mean we aren’t doing everything we can. It’s under control as much as you can control it. This is a horrible plague that has beset us.“


Really good and tough interview. In fact the interviewer was interrupting Trump more than I like to see as at times it messed up the flow of the conversation. The guy was very hostile toward Trump and Trump handled it very well. I was impressed.

https://youtu.be/zaaTZkqsaxY
 

RxCowboy

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Contact tracing during Phase I of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Province of Trento, Italy: key findings and recommendations
Pirous Fateh-Moghadam, Laura Battisti, Silvia Molinaro, Steno Fontanari, Gabriele Dallago, Nancy Binkin, Mariagrazia Zuccali

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.16.20127357
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

Abstract
Introduction Contact tracing is a key pillar of COVID-19 control. In response to the COVID-19 epidemic in the Autonomous Province of Trento (Italy) a software was developed to standardize data collection and facilitate surveillance of contacts and outbreaks and map the links between bases and contacts. In this paper, we present the results of contact tracing efforts during Phase I of the epidemic (March-April, 2020, mostly under lockdown), including sociodemographic characteristics of contacts who became cases and of the cases who infected one or more contact. Methods A contact tracing website was developed that included components for geolocation and linking of cases and contacts using open source software. Information on community-based confirmed and probable cases and their contacts was centralized on the website. Information on cases came directly from the central case database, information on contacts was collected by telephone interviews following a standard questionnaire. Contacts were followed via telephone, emails, or an app. Results The 2,812 laboratory-diagnosed community cases of COVID-19 had 6,690 community contacts, of whom 890 (13.3%) developed symptoms. Risk of developing symptomatic disease increased with age and was higher in workplace contacts than cohabitants or non-cohabiting family or friends. The greatest risk of transmission to contacts was found for the 14 cases <15 years of age (22.4%); 8 of the 14, who ranged in age from <1 to 11 years) infected 11 of 49 contacts. Overall, 606 outbreaks were identified, 74% of which consisted of only two cases. Discussion The open-source software program permitted the centralized tracking of contacts and rapid identification of links between cases. Workplace contacts were at higher risk of developing symptoms. Although childhood contacts were less likely to become cases, children were more likely to infect household members, perhaps because of the difficulty of successfully isolating children in household settings.

Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
 

TheMonkey

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What does being an early adopter of masks have to do with spikes that are happening right now? If people are testing positive now wouldn’t that mean they contracted the virus recently enough that it happened during widespread mask use? I guess I’m confused as to why you are so focused on these early adopter countries if the topic is spikes in mid July to now.
The point is early adoption of masks were an effective strategy. We started too late. It became a political statement. We aren’t seeing the same results because we waited too long and are still building compliance. So, when people say masks aren’t working, it is probably because we’re still catching up and the initial spread is negatively impacting efficacy. Ultimately, it would be counterproductive to argue masks are detrimental without hard evidence that is the case. Instead, it would be better to bend the culture toward using masks more effectively.

As to the anecdotal thing, yes and I never said otherwise. There’s no way that there is a reliable study out there that says whether people magnify their adherence to social distancing based on seeing people wearing masks. So anecdotal is as good as anything else right now. And I’ll be honest with you, I’m a pretty open minded guy but if a study did come out that said people were magnifying their adherence to social distancing due to the visual cues of masks I wouldn’t believe it. Anecdotal or not, my personal experience in this instance is just too overwhelming in the other direction. Maybe if someone is wearing a bizarre contraption people might steer clear. Ha!
We llike to think we’re open minded. But we all have biases and make irrational decisions. I realize I’m also in that camp. We make faulty assumptions about causation all the time. Did wearing masks cause people to disregard social distancing, or is it because they are experiencing COVID fatigue? Were they truly social distancing before the mask mandate? We can make all kinds of assumptions, but our best bet is to look at large cross sections of objective data to understand trends and causation. Not all of it is easy to find, but a fair amount is available with some Google searches and an understanding of which sources are credible.