This is really strange. They have a positivity rate (31%) that rivals outbreak centers in April. As a state, North Carolina has a positivity rate under 10% for these last two weeks and looking at JHU data, they topped out around 12% positivity in April/May. Looking at their entire region (radius of 3 states around NC) only one state has had a positivity rate that cracked 25% and it was in April. Either a huge amount of students were partying and not following guidelines in their dorms, the UNC dorm guidelines were garbage, this thing spreads more than we've seen elsewhere, or there's something weird about how they're doing testing (maybe they're just insanely efficient with contact tracing). Might be a combination of all of the above, but 31% positivity is extremely high. To put that in perspective, when NYC hit 40% positivity the overall point prevalence in NYC was estimated at 15% to 20%.
It is to the point that either our numbers are false or theirs are. I’ve been waiting for school to start.....school has not been an issue anywhere on the planet regardless the level of response from Sweden to South Korea....places that opened school as part of initial reopen to last thing....there are multiple studies that children under 12 don’t drive this thing from reputable sources. If school is a significant driver of cases we are either dealing with a mutated version of the virus or the data so far off it’s useless either here or everywhere else on earth.
To me, this makes the UNC data seem even more weird. Miami is in a worse hotspot and has a far lower positivity rate around 6%. Even with a more apples to apples compariso, that's about half what UNC had in a similar timeframe.
UA President warns that on-campus semester is in peril
The Tuscaloosa News
University of Alabama President Dr. Stuart Bell issued a letter to UA students on Sunday warning of enhanced monitoring of student activities both on and off campus as UA seeks to maintain a full fall semester.
Dr. Bell’s letter called this “a critical moment for The University of Alabama.” He did not directly reference football as the Southeastern Conference continues to pursue a September 26 start date for a fall season. The letter sounded a cautious note
“Despite the robust testing, training, health and safety measures we carefully and clearly implemented, there is an unacceptable rise in positive COVID cases on our campus.
“Make no mistake, this trend is a real threat to our ability to complete the semester on campus. The solution is proven: testing, mask wearing, social distancing, personal hygiene and compliance with crowd size limits are all that are asked as we work together to complete the semester together.
“Violations to our health and safety protocols, both on and off campus, are subject to harsh disciplinary action, up to and including suspension from UA.”
Large parties on campus and crowds at local bars have been sources of concern and will draw additional monitoring, the letter said.
“UAPD and the Tuscaloosa Police Department are partnering to monitor bars, restaurants and off-campus residences where the city’s COVID-19 ordinances and UA guidelines are not being followed. Joint task force officers are risking their personal health and safety to protect yours. UAPD officers are also focusing efforts on our residence halls and Greek housing to ensure safety and compliance.
“Completing the fall semester together is our goal. The margin for error is shrinking.
Now is the time to take action, commit to protect each other, and hold each other accountable. Thank you for taking your responsibilities seriously. Together, through shared sacrifice and commitment, we will achieve our goal.”
University officials are expected to release detailed coronavirus numbers as soon as Monday.