Covid-19

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UrbanCowboy1

Some cowboys gots smarts real good like me.
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Africa was widely predicted have a major Covid-19 outbreak because of their large cites with people closely packed together. Yet their death rates remain the lowest in the world. There is lots of speculation but no answers.
This is really the hidden story. I saw the BBC article, still not fully satisfied there. Possibly linked to vitamin D? Also, they have a much lower average age in their population. But if that's the case, my god, how old are the people dying from this on average? That data is harder to come by.
 

Binman4OSU

Legendary Cowboy
Aug 31, 2007
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Stupid about AGW!!
This is really the hidden story. I saw the BBC article, still not fully satisfied there. Possibly linked to vitamin D? Also, they have a much lower average age in their population. But if that's the case, my god, how old are the people dying from this on average? That data is harder to come by.
Also, other comorbidity issues caused from obesity that COVID exploits are almost non existent in the country. They have very low diabetes rates.

Central African countries also only have an avg Lifespan of 53 years old without COVID
 

SLVRBK

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Well SARS hit hard there a few years back so when rumors of a new virus begin to spread the Govt and public started immediate precautions before China ever actually confirmed COVID was a thing

Taiwan has only had 500 cases and 7 deaths

While COVID was still a rumor the Govt begin stocking up on PPE and they mobilized the military to help produce protective equipment and to distribute it

they started isolating any people who showed any Flu like symptoms before COVID was a thing

They put very strict travel bans in place prior to China acknowledging COVID

They begin making all travelers into the country via air undergo health screenings on Dec 31st

Their CDC sent experts to Wuhan to get more info about the virus

By March they banned all foreign travelers unless they were diplomats or people with special entry visas. However all travelers had to prove they had tested negative within 72 hrs of flying and then quarantine for a min of 5 days at a Govt run facility and get a negative result on a COVID test prior to them being allowed out of the facility and into the country

Their Foreign Minister begin 2 daily updates per day with open and transparent info

Mandatory 4 month quarantine if you test positive but can be shortened but only after passing 3 COVID test with a min of 2 weeks between each test.
Thanks but none of that answered my question...how long was their lockdown? How long were restaurant, businesses, schools, etc closed? How long did they keep families from visiting loved ones in the hospitals or nursing homes? Did they prevent family and friends from gathering? Did they prevent people from traveling within their city or country? If all they did was close borders and let daily life continue as normal that’s fine but I don’t know what the response was in Taiwan.
 

RxCowboy

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Thanks but none of that answered my question...how long was their lockdown? How long were restaurant, businesses, schools, etc closed? How long did they keep families from visiting loved ones in the hospitals or nursing homes? Did they prevent family and friends from gathering? Did they prevent people from traveling within their city or country? If all they did was close borders and let daily life continue as normal that’s fine but I don’t know what the response was in Taiwan.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(20)30044-4/fulltext

Taiwan's COVID-19 response: defining features and differences from New Zealand's response that could plausibly have contributed to different outcomes
The responses of Taiwan and New Zealand to the COVID-19 pandemic varied as a result of pre-COVID infrastructure and planning, and may also have been influenced by the different timing of first confirmed cases in the respective jurisdictions (as shown in Appendix 1). These circumstances resulted in differential timing of the mandated use of case-based (eg, contact tracing and quarantine) and population-based (eg, face mask use and physical distancing) interventions. A recent modelling analysis using the detailed empirical case data in Taiwan concluded that population-based interventions likely played a major role in Taiwan's initial elimination efforts, and case-based interventions alone were not sufficient to control the epidemic [36]. Major features of the differing COVID-19 responses consist of the following:
  • Probably the most fundamental difference between the situation of Taiwan and New Zealand was that in Taiwan responsiveness to pandemic diseases and similar threats is embedded in its national institutions. Taiwan established a dedicated CDC in 1990 to combat the threat of communicable diseases. By contrast, the equivalent organisation in New Zealand (the NZ Communicable Disease Centre, a business unit within the Department of Health) was closed in 1992 with its functions transferred to a newly formed Crown Research Institute (ESR) and then contracted back to what became the Ministry of Health. In addition, Taiwan established a National Health Command centre (NHCC) in 2004 following the SARS epidemic. This agency, working in association with the CDC, was dedicated to responding to emerging threats, such as pandemics, and given the power to coordinate work across government departments and draw on additional personnel in an emergency.
  • Taiwan's pandemic response was largely mapped out through extensive planning as a result of the SARS pandemic in 2003, and was developed in such a way that it could be adapted to new pathogens. By contrast, New Zealand was reliant on its existing Influenza Pandemic Plan as a framework for responding to COVID-19, which has rather different disease characteristics compared with pandemic influenza, (although the plan does have some relevance for controlling any new respiratory pathogen).
  • As in many Asian countries that had experience with SARS, Taiwan had an established culture of face mask use by the public. It also has a very proactive policy of supporting production and distribution of masks to all residents, securing the supply, and providing universal access to surgical masks during the COVID-19 pandemic from February 2020 onwards. There were also official requirements to wear masks in confined indoor environments (notably subways), even during periods when there was no community transmission [37]. By contrast, health officials in New Zealand did not promote mass masking as part of resurgence planning until August, despite science-based advocacy from a broad base of public health and clinical experts [38].
  • Taiwan's well-developed pandemic approach, with extensive contact tracing through both manual and digital approaches, and access to travel histories, meant that potential cases could be identified and isolated relatively quickly [39]. This ability to track individuals or identify high-risk contacts resulted in fewer locally acquired cases. In contrast, New Zealand's contact tracing methods varied by local authority level and until May 2020 did not involve a centralised digital approach (e.g., did not have national approaches to the use of mobile phone applications and telecommunications data) [40]. New Zealand's resulting lockdown period began in March and effectively lasted for seven weeks (at Alert Levels 4 and 3).
  • Taiwanese officials began border management measures (initially health screening air passengers) the day the World Health Organization was informed of the outbreak in Wuhan (31 December 2019) and more extensive border screening of all arrivals occurred in late January, which coincided with the first case in Taiwan. New Zealand's first case occurred in late February 2020, and initially coincided with the first restrictions on foreign nationals from China. Both jurisdictions imposed wider entry restrictions to non-citizens in March 2020. The earlier introduction of entry restrictions and health screening in Taiwan is likely to have influenced the relatively lower case numbers in Taiwan compared with New Zealand up to August 2020 (20.7 vs 278.0 confirmed COVID-19 cases per million population respectively).
From the Discussion
. . . Despite Taiwan's closer proximity to the source of the pandemic, and its high population density, it experienced a substantially lower case rate of 20.7 per million compared with New Zealand's 278.0 per million. Rapid and systematic implementation of control measures, in particular effective border management (exclusion, screening, quarantine/isolation), contact tracing, systematic quarantine/isolation of potential and confirmed cases, cluster control, active promotion of mass masking, and meaningful public health communication, are likely to have been instrumental in limiting pandemic spread. Furthermore, the effectiveness of Taiwan's public health response has meant that to date no lockdown has been implemented, placing Taiwan in a stronger economic position both during and post-COVID-19 compared with New Zealand, which had seven weeks of national lockdown (at Alert Levels 4 and 3).(emphasis added) In comparison to Taiwan, New Zealand appeared to take a less vigorous response to this pandemic during its early stages, only introducing border management measures in a stepwise manner.
 

Pokit N

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To be fair, Australia has a couple things going for it. It's an island (yes, it's huge, but that does play a factor). And it's relatively few major cities with vast unpopulated areas. You control like 5 cities and you've got a good shot at getting it under control. In the US you'd need to control at least 50 cities and completely shut down our border with Mexico and Canada.
It has 10 MM fewer people that the STATE of California.
 
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This is really the hidden story. I saw the BBC article, still not fully satisfied there. Possibly linked to vitamin D? Also, they have a much lower average age in their population. But if that's the case, my god, how old are the people dying from this on average? That data is harder to come by.
I've seen stats of between 82.5 and 78 for average age of death with Covid. Tried to find a recent study on Google but couldn't.
 

PF5

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all I know is I am seeing more of my friends and acquaintances get Covid...most have mild symptoms, but a few have been knocked on their @$$...one is in hospital now in very serious condition (40s), another passed away (20ish)...it's so weird how it affects people so differently...I'm so tired of this new world we live in...so ready for 2021...or am I?!
 

SLVRBK

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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(20)30044-4/fulltext

Taiwan's COVID-19 response: defining features and differences from New Zealand's response that could plausibly have contributed to different outcomes
The responses of Taiwan and New Zealand to the COVID-19 pandemic varied as a result of pre-COVID infrastructure and planning, and may also have been influenced by the different timing of first confirmed cases in the respective jurisdictions (as shown in Appendix 1). These circumstances resulted in differential timing of the mandated use of case-based (eg, contact tracing and quarantine) and population-based (eg, face mask use and physical distancing) interventions. A recent modelling analysis using the detailed empirical case data in Taiwan concluded that population-based interventions likely played a major role in Taiwan's initial elimination efforts, and case-based interventions alone were not sufficient to control the epidemic [36]. Major features of the differing COVID-19 responses consist of the following:
  • Probably the most fundamental difference between the situation of Taiwan and New Zealand was that in Taiwan responsiveness to pandemic diseases and similar threats is embedded in its national institutions. Taiwan established a dedicated CDC in 1990 to combat the threat of communicable diseases. By contrast, the equivalent organisation in New Zealand (the NZ Communicable Disease Centre, a business unit within the Department of Health) was closed in 1992 with its functions transferred to a newly formed Crown Research Institute (ESR) and then contracted back to what became the Ministry of Health. In addition, Taiwan established a National Health Command centre (NHCC) in 2004 following the SARS epidemic. This agency, working in association with the CDC, was dedicated to responding to emerging threats, such as pandemics, and given the power to coordinate work across government departments and draw on additional personnel in an emergency.
  • Taiwan's pandemic response was largely mapped out through extensive planning as a result of the SARS pandemic in 2003, and was developed in such a way that it could be adapted to new pathogens. By contrast, New Zealand was reliant on its existing Influenza Pandemic Plan as a framework for responding to COVID-19, which has rather different disease characteristics compared with pandemic influenza, (although the plan does have some relevance for controlling any new respiratory pathogen).
  • As in many Asian countries that had experience with SARS, Taiwan had an established culture of face mask use by the public. It also has a very proactive policy of supporting production and distribution of masks to all residents, securing the supply, and providing universal access to surgical masks during the COVID-19 pandemic from February 2020 onwards. There were also official requirements to wear masks in confined indoor environments (notably subways), even during periods when there was no community transmission [37]. By contrast, health officials in New Zealand did not promote mass masking as part of resurgence planning until August, despite science-based advocacy from a broad base of public health and clinical experts [38].
  • Taiwan's well-developed pandemic approach, with extensive contact tracing through both manual and digital approaches, and access to travel histories, meant that potential cases could be identified and isolated relatively quickly [39]. This ability to track individuals or identify high-risk contacts resulted in fewer locally acquired cases. In contrast, New Zealand's contact tracing methods varied by local authority level and until May 2020 did not involve a centralised digital approach (e.g., did not have national approaches to the use of mobile phone applications and telecommunications data) [40]. New Zealand's resulting lockdown period began in March and effectively lasted for seven weeks (at Alert Levels 4 and 3).
  • Taiwanese officials began border management measures (initially health screening air passengers) the day the World Health Organization was informed of the outbreak in Wuhan (31 December 2019) and more extensive border screening of all arrivals occurred in late January, which coincided with the first case in Taiwan. New Zealand's first case occurred in late February 2020, and initially coincided with the first restrictions on foreign nationals from China. Both jurisdictions imposed wider entry restrictions to non-citizens in March 2020. The earlier introduction of entry restrictions and health screening in Taiwan is likely to have influenced the relatively lower case numbers in Taiwan compared with New Zealand up to August 2020 (20.7 vs 278.0 confirmed COVID-19 cases per million population respectively).
From the Discussion
. . . Despite Taiwan's closer proximity to the source of the pandemic, and its high population density, it experienced a substantially lower case rate of 20.7 per million compared with New Zealand's 278.0 per million. Rapid and systematic implementation of control measures, in particular effective border management (exclusion, screening, quarantine/isolation), contact tracing, systematic quarantine/isolation of potential and confirmed cases, cluster control, active promotion of mass masking, and meaningful public health communication, are likely to have been instrumental in limiting pandemic spread. Furthermore, the effectiveness of Taiwan's public health response has meant that to date no lockdown has been implemented, placing Taiwan in a stronger economic position both during and post-COVID-19 compared with New Zealand, which had seven weeks of national lockdown (at Alert Levels 4 and 3).(emphasis added) In comparison to Taiwan, New Zealand appeared to take a less vigorous response to this pandemic during its early stages, only introducing border management measures in a stepwise manner.
Perfect...thanks @RxCowboy !
 

Binman4OSU

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Aug 31, 2007
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Stupid about AGW!!
Damn, This kid is by far the best QB in NCAA football. It would suck if Clemson loses a game or two while he is out and don't make the Playoff.

I use to very much dislike watching him play and thought he was all Hype. But week in and week out he just keeps producing and at some point I had to agree he was damn good QB

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1321978308234481664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1321979646938894337%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Foutsider.com%2Fnews%2Fsports%2Fclemson-qb-trevor-lawrence-tests-positive-for-covid-19%2F
 
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Damn, This kid is by far the best QB in NCAA football. It would suck if Clemson loses a game or two while he is out and don't make the Playoff.

I use to very much dislike watching him play and thought he was all Hype. But week in and week out he just keeps producing and at some point I had to agree he was damn good QB

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1321978308234481664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1321979646938894337%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Foutsider.com%2Fnews%2Fsports%2Fclemson-qb-trevor-lawrence-tests-positive-for-covid-19%2F
The guy beat Bama by 28 for a National title, as a true freshman.
 

wrenhal

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Aug 11, 2011
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all I know is I am seeing more of my friends and acquaintances get Covid...most have mild symptoms, but a few have been knocked on their @$$...one is in hospital now in very serious condition (40s), another passed away (20ish)...it's so weird how it affects people so differently...I'm so tired of this new world we live in...so ready for 2021...or am I?!
I still think it's a mix of age, and blood types as biggest factors, alongside getting lots of natural vitamin D being outside and how healthy you are (no co-morbidities).

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Last edited:

wrenhal

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https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1322157399097180160
COULD is the big word here. It could also be that they are still trying to determine if this is a true predictor or not before making it public. That's what's wrong with journalism today. No investigation beyond trying to make orange man look bad. Or misleading headlines to do the same knowing the articles will not be read by the majority of people.

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Binman4OSU

Legendary Cowboy
Aug 31, 2007
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Stupid about AGW!!
COULD is the big word here. It could also be that they are still trying to determine if this is a true predictor or not before making it public. That's what's wrong with journalism today. No investigation beyond trying to make orange man look bad. Or misleading headlines to do the same knowing the articles will not be read by the majority of people.

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did you read the article and see what information is contained in these reports?? Please do. I think you will understand your post is off base
 

wrenhal

Federal Marshal
Aug 11, 2011
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COULD is the big word here. It could also be that they are still trying to determine if this is a true predictor or not before making it public. That's what's wrong with journalism today. No investigation beyond trying to make orange man look bad. Or misleading headlines to do the same knowing the articles will not be read by the majority of people.

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did you read the article and see what information is contained in these reports?? Please do. I think you will understand your post is off base
I think the quote below is very crucial here. It appears the data lacks context anyway. I think, rather than "orange man bad", this should have been framed in the headline as more that data collection is flawed across the board by everyone and new ways need to be found to add context and provide a wider picture for everyone.
I disagree that the average citizen needs to see this data to make decisions (as said in the article), but it does need to be refined and filtered out better. A one week delay by hhs cam be a problem.

Quote:
"We're so focused on counting things but not contextualizing them," explains McPheeters. A community hospital might become overwhelmed at a different point than a big academic hospital, and without that context, she says, it's impossible to tell: "Is 75% [full] a good thing or is 75% a bad thing?"

Health data experts NPR consulted had ideas on how to improve the analysis. For instance, Panchadsaram suggested that some of the county-level charts, currently presented as raw numbers, would be more useful if analyzed per capita. "You really need to adjust it to the number of people [in an area] to get a sense of where things are being overwhelmed," he says.



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