House(Senate) expected to (not)Impeach Trump ??..announcement at 3pm CST

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bleedinorange

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Jan 11, 2010
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In Pokey's head
Data & statistical analyst I follow has another blue wave in the house and a toss up in the senate and WH. She was spot on in 2018.

Her #s for 2020 have a baked in 85/15 pro trump Evangelical support and haven’t moved that much thru the impeachment inquiry and vote. Which is similar to nationwide polling.

Her models show that by shifting the 85/15 by 10 points to 75/25 it is devastating to GOP in 2020 and costs them the WH & better than 50/50 shot in the senate.

The point. You cannot underestimate Christianity Today coming out in support of removal. Trump can call it a liberal rag all he wants. Franklin can disavow. But the speed at which he came out tells you they are scared. If mainstream evangelicals start to jump ship it will be over. And don’t think that many won’t just stay home in 2020. They have their 5-4 SCOTUS and might not be able to stomach Trump for another 4 years.
Riiiight, and an hour before the voting closed Clinton had a 98% chance of winning "according to the polls". Trump will crush any of the useful idiots running against him thanks to Pelosi, Schitt, and Waddler.
 

StillwaterTownie

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Riiiight, and an hour before the voting closed Clinton had a 98% chance of winning "according to the polls". Trump will crush any of the useful idiots running against him thanks to Pelosi, Schitt, and Waddler.
Final credible polls had the election too close to call. The battleground states in the end settled the election. They will probably do the same with the 2020 election. Maybe once again Trump will win the Electoral College but lose popular vote.
 

StillwaterTownie

Federal Marshal
Jun 18, 2010
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Where else but Stillwater
Data & statistical analyst I follow has another blue wave in the house and a toss up in the senate and WH. She was spot on in 2018.

Her #s for 2020 have a baked in 85/15 pro trump Evangelical support and haven’t moved that much thru the impeachment inquiry and vote. Which is similar to nationwide polling.

Her models show that by shifting the 85/15 by 10 points to 75/25 it is devastating to GOP in 2020 and costs them the WH & better than 50/50 shot in the senate.

The point. You cannot underestimate Christianity Today coming out in support of removal. Trump can call it a liberal rag all he wants. Franklin can disavow. But the speed at which he came out tells you they are scared. If mainstream evangelicals start to jump ship it will be over. And don’t think that many won’t just stay home in 2020. They have their 5-4 SCOTUS and might not be able to stomach Trump for another 4 years.
All what research concludes along with the polls only stays good for as long as the day it was done.

All the Evangelical support for Trump hangs on Trump's appointees in the Supreme Court helping make majority decisions against abortion. If they don't, there goes the Evangelical support. They're already mighty pissed off at Trump for choosing a homosexual activist for judge.
https://afa.net/activism/action-ale...lgbt-activist-group-tell-senators-to-vote-no/
 
Jul 25, 2018
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All what research concludes along with the polls only stays good for as long as the day it was done.

All the Evangelical support for Trump hangs on Trump's appointees in the Supreme Court helping make majority decisions against abortion. If they don't, there goes the Evangelical support. They're already mighty pissed off at Trump for choosing a homosexual activist for judge.
https://afa.net/activism/action-ale...lgbt-activist-group-tell-senators-to-vote-no/
This is why you still don't get how 2016 happened.

The support has to GO somewhere, if Trump were to lose it. What candidate other than Trump would see that support turn to them?
 

wrenhal

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Aug 11, 2011
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Data & statistical analyst I follow has another blue wave in the house and a toss up in the senate and WH. She was spot on in 2018.

Her #s for 2020 have a baked in 85/15 pro trump Evangelical support and haven’t moved that much thru the impeachment inquiry and vote. Which is similar to nationwide polling.

Her models show that by shifting the 85/15 by 10 points to 75/25 it is devastating to GOP in 2020 and costs them the WH & better than 50/50 shot in the senate.

The point. You cannot underestimate Christianity Today coming out in support of removal. Trump can call it a liberal rag all he wants. Franklin can disavow. But the speed at which he came out tells you they are scared. If mainstream evangelicals start to jump ship it will be over. And don’t think that many won’t just stay home in 2020. They have their 5-4 SCOTUS and might not be able to stomach Trump for another 4 years.
Throw in the unpredictability of a presidential election and I really doubt she's going to have quite the "spot on" performance.

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
 

wrenhal

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Riiiight, and an hour before the voting closed Clinton had a 98% chance of winning "according to the polls". Trump will crush any of the useful idiots running against him thanks to Pelosi, Schitt, and Waddler.
Final credible polls had the election too close to call. The battleground states in the end settled the election. They will probably do the same with the 2020 election. Maybe once again Trump will win the Electoral College but lose popular vote.
Yeah sure that explains why I pretty much every liberal on TV was shocked as the night went on.

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
 

SLVRBK

Johnny 8ball's PR Manager
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Oct 16, 2003
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Data & statistical analyst I follow has another blue wave in the house and a toss up in the senate and WH. She was spot on in 2018.

Her #s for 2020 have a baked in 85/15 pro trump Evangelical support and haven’t moved that much thru the impeachment inquiry and vote. Which is similar to nationwide polling.

Her models show that by shifting the 85/15 by 10 points to 75/25 it is devastating to GOP in 2020 and costs them the WH & better than 50/50 shot in the senate.

The point. You cannot underestimate Christianity Today coming out in support of removal. Trump can call it a liberal rag all he wants. Franklin can disavow. But the speed at which he came out tells you they are scared. If mainstream evangelicals start to jump ship it will be over. And don’t think that many won’t just stay home in 2020. They have their 5-4 SCOTUS and might not be able to stomach Trump for another 4 years.
Can you link to the info?
Does she have models available from 2016?

We have seen several different groups become the "spot on" political forecasters through the years because they were accurate in one election cycle only to be completely off the next. Presidential elections is very different from mid-term Congressional elections, even 2018's.

I'm interested in watching the LA Times poll during the Presidential election, they had Trump winning from the wire (IIRC) and was the only poll that predicted him to win. Their poll is not random as they poll the same people throughout the campaign season.
 

CocoCincinnati

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Hell just about every 1st term presidents party does poorly in that midterm. It wasn't exactly rocket science to predict the Dems taking the House in 18. Other recent presidents have fared just as bad or worse in the midterm and still comfortably won reelection.
 
Jul 25, 2018
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Hell just about every 1st term presidents party does poorly in that midterm. It wasn't exactly rocket science to predict the Dems taking the House in 18. Other recent presidents have fared just as bad or worse in the midterm and still comfortably won reelection.
Correct, the President's party most always loses seats in the House in midterm elections. You can set your watch by it.

Trump was also only the 3rd President in 100 years to gain Senate seats in the midterm.
 

John C

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You are missing the 30-35% support he is getting from minorities. If he gets that at the voting booth he could pull a 50 state sweep.
He can’t possibly win all 50. He doesn’t have a chance in NY, NJ, ILL, and CALI. There are too many illegals and dead people who vote in those states.
 

John C

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Oct 13, 2011
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Data & statistical analyst I follow has another blue wave in the house and a toss up in the senate and WH. She was spot on in 2018.

Her #s for 2020 have a baked in 85/15 pro trump Evangelical support and haven’t moved that much thru the impeachment inquiry and vote. Which is similar to nationwide polling.

Her models show that by shifting the 85/15 by 10 points to 75/25 it is devastating to GOP in 2020 and costs them the WH & better than 50/50 shot in the senate.

The point. You cannot underestimate Christianity Today coming out in support of removal. Trump can call it a liberal rag all he wants. Franklin can disavow. But the speed at which he came out tells you they are scared. If mainstream evangelicals start to jump ship it will be over. And don’t think that many won’t just stay home in 2020. They have their 5-4 SCOTUS and might not be able to stomach Trump for another 4 years.
How does she have the African American vote in the WH race?
 
Sep 6, 2012
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hu...-as-alleged-mistress-demands-custody-of-child

ruh roh
"Hunter Biden, the 49-year-old son of former Vice President Joe Biden, has been dodging discovery requests in connection with a paternity case in Arkansas, and is "the subject of more than one criminal investigation involving fraud, money laundering and a counterfeiting scheme," a private investigation firm claimed this week in a bizarre court filing.
In addition, the Florida-based D&A Investigations told Fox News that its investigators have found that the intelligence community whistleblower at the center of the Democrats' impeachment effort against President Trump accompanied Joe Biden when he traveled to Ukraine in early 2016 and, by his own admission, pressured the country's government to fire its top prosecutor by threatening to withhold $1 billion in U.S. aid."


there is more interesting items at the bottom of the article
 
Oct 7, 2008
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"The White House violated federal law in withholding security assistance to Ukraine, an action at the center of President Donald Trump’s impeachment, a federal watchdog agency said Thursday.

The Government Accountability Office said in a report that the Office of Management and Budget violated the law in holding up the aid, which Congress passed less than a year ago, saying “the President is not vested with the power to ignore or amend any such duly enacted law.”

https://apnews.com/9127109f325778490fd40c5f98be1817
 

Binman4OSU

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Stupid about AGW!!
"The White House violated federal law in withholding security assistance to Ukraine, an action at the center of President Donald Trump’s impeachment, a federal watchdog agency said Thursday.

The Government Accountability Office said in a report that the Office of Management and Budget violated the law in holding up the aid, which Congress passed less than a year ago, saying “the President is not vested with the power to ignore or amend any such duly enacted law.”

https://apnews.com/9127109f325778490fd40c5f98be1817
AND don't forget
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1217824532381274112




Mean While on the Ultra Conservative News side
 

pokes16

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So the "Chief Equity and Inclusion Officer" excludes Trump and the approximately 60 million people that voted for him? Ohhhhh the irony!
 

Deere Poke

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AND don't forget
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1217824532381274112





Mean While on the Ultra Conservative News side
It's good to see ABC and CNN reporting on how governments wast Taxpayer money both here and abroad. Especially when you consider the guy that released the text messages claimed they were a joke and shouldn't be taken seriously. What a shit show.