If Football Is Cancelled

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Binman4OSU

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current R0 values by state.

the worldwide R0 value across the Earth right now is between 2-6. Putting COVID in the same ranks of contagion as Smallpox, Rubella, Polio, and about 2 to 3 x more contagious than the Flu or the common cold

The H1N1 Epidemic had an R value of 1.4-1.6 and 16 million Americans got it. During COVID we have seen R values in the states range from 0.5 to 3.8 and a pretty steady 2.5 when the outbreak started

We have 5.1 million confirmed cases in the US right now with most estimating that the real number of confirmed and unconfirmed is 10x higher or about 50 million people. This is the effect of the R0 number

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CocoCincinnati

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I don’t know enough about the case to determine if it should count or not. The fact that it was removed in Florida’s political environment is meaningless regarding the truth.
How is the political climate in Florida any different than the political climate in any other state. You're basically saying that we can't trust any of these stats being released. Unless your argument is that only people removing cases from the death count would do so dishonesty for political reasons while all people adding to the count are above reproach and are politically neutral.
 

RxCowboy

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That's fair. But I think a lot of people are centering their discussions on risk since we're discussing personal choices and risk assessment of individuals.
The people you infect don't get to make a personal choice. That's what the R0 is. The current estimate for SARS-CoV-2 is R0=5.7, which is very virulent.
1597246327945.png
 

RxCowboy

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I don’t know enough about the case to determine if it should count or not. The fact that it was removed in Florida’s political environment is meaningless regarding the truth.
I've said this exact thing. The inclusion of COVID for the MVA could've been entirely appropriate medically and removing it entirely political.
 

Binman4OSU

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I've said this exact thing. The inclusion of COVID for the MVA could've been entirely appropriate medically and removing it entirely political.
the fact we do not have a national standard for testing and reporting data is a complete failure at this time. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary responses. The Feds should have laid out a guide line long ago of, what, when, how, and who to report cases too with full public oversight.
 

RxCowboy

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Excess deaths?

The Financial Times has an excellent page on their web site and it compares total deaths (by country) compared to death in prior years. They show the US as having under 150k “excess deaths”. We had roughly 160k COVID counted deaths. Seems our COVID count is fairly accurate. What am I missing?

On their site you do see some countries that may have an undercount. Spain appears to be undercounting by nearly 50%. UK also looks undercounted. But US looks fairly accurate.
You have to look at all causes, not just COVID. It is asking the question, "would this patient with X have died without the pandemic?"

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980
 
Mar 11, 2006
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You have to look at all causes, not just COVID. It is asking the question, "would this patient with X have died without the pandemic?"

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980
I believe the Financial Times is comparing all causes. Their chart for each country says “number of deaths per week from all causes, 2020 vs recent years” They are looking at total deaths compared YoY by country.

Since the US total is nearly aligned with our published COVID death count ...it appears the US is doing counting correcting. But, it does appear some countries may be under counted.
 

RxCowboy

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What aspect of life has guarantees? I'm not aware of any but willing to listen to those that think there are? Otherwise adults have the right and sole responsibility to live life as they see fit and enjoy the benefits of their good decisions as well as the other side of the coin.
You are SO right.
 

CocoCincinnati

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the fact we do not have a national standard for testing and reporting data is a complete failure at this time. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary responses. The Feds should have laid out a guide line long ago of, what, when, how, and who to report cases too with full public oversight.
Agreed, the CDC has been around for a long long time. I'm actually surprised they didn't have some kind of guidelines already in place from past pandemics.
 

Binman4OSU

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So...what? No comeback for how sports has been played all summer with no outbreaks? Amazing isnt it.
:facepalm::facepalm::facepalm:
https://www.aspenprojectplay.org/pa...nce-of-covid-19-outbreaks-due-to-youth-sports
  • In Kentucky, there was an outbreak among a high school football team that spread to 38 people, including 18 football players, three coaches and 17 of their family members and close contacts who have tested positive. The school suspended all athletic workouts and those who tested positive are recovering at home. The first case came from a player returned from vacation and tested positive. It’s believed he transmitted the virus through weight room workouts. “This is just one example of why wearing a mask is absolutely critical,” Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said at a news conference last week. “Let’s just take this as another lesson that we’re living in really dangerous times. It says that we need to be nervous right now about sports.”
  • In St. Louis County, Missouri, the county executive said youth sports are “the primary source of spread in the community.” County officials said there have been six to eight new cases of COVID-19 reported daily in children and teens ages 10 to 19. At least two high schools have reported cases involving athletes participating in football conditioning workouts. The county’s department of public health created new guidelines for youth sports. Teams are now only allowed to practice and play within-team competitions and not against other teams or compete in tournaments. Some youth sports leagues are protesting the order.
  • In Iowa, high school baseball and softball postseason brackets have been heavily disrupted by COVID-19 cases on various teams. Iowa was the first state to resume high school sports. Roughly 25 baseball teams and 20 softball teams have been impacted by possible exposures or infections, according to ESPN. One athletic director said so many programs have had to shut down with quarantines that “we’re all looking at each other like, ‘Well, it’s only a matter of time before we’re next.’” Chris Cuellar, communications director for the Iowa High School Athletic Association, told ESPN that social distancing has been one of the biggest challenges for some communities, whose policies are more relaxed as people at games act “like coronavirus doesn’t exist.”