Texas Bowl vs aTm

  • You are viewing Orangepower as a Guest. To start new threads, reply to posts, or participate in polls or contests - you must register. Registration is free and easy. Click Here to register.

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
20,292
9,156
1,743
Earth
Here's what that would look like.
OSU vs Top 25
Including uo = 37%
Excluding uo = 45%

OSU vs Top 10:
Including uo = 10%
Excluding uo = 17%

A few things jump out when looking at these stats. uo has been really strong in Gundy's tenure (8 top 10 finishes in 14 years, and only two unranked finishes). Oddly enough, they had a head coaching change, and have finished 2 and 4 in the nation after the change occurred.

Here's uo's final rankings in the Gundy era.
2005: 22
2006: 11
2007: 8
2008: 5
2009: NR
2010: 6
2011: 16 (OSU ended ranked #3 this year, and beat uo)
2012: 15
2013: 6
2014: NR (OSU finished unranked, but beat uo)
2015: 4
2016: 7
2017: 2 <---- Coaching change
2018: 4

Some interesting things.....
We can only beat uo when they are having a down year, and even then, its only a 33% chance we can beat them when they finish outside the Top 10. Heck, its a 50% chance when they're outside the top 15, and only 50% when they're unranked. We've literally only beat them when they're 16th or worse in the country.
The one time we beat a legit uo team was when we had Monken and W2B.
uo has actually gotten better since changing coaches (albeit with a tiny sample size)

So....you're correct that uo has an impact on our win % against the top tier teams. BUT.....if we want to take the next step, we have to beat them. Sounds like you just don't want to try taking the next step.
Fyi, Since Gundy has been head coach we have been ranked in the AP top 20 at the end of the year 7 times the highest being 3rd in 2011...in the 100 years prior we were ranked in the AP top 20 exactly 7 times the highest being 5th in 1945.

Btw, an impressive bowl win might get us the 8th time since his tenure began.
 

Birry

Federal Marshal
Feb 6, 2007
12,177
6,860
1,743
Landlocked
Fyi, Since Gundy has been head coach we have been ranked in the AP top 20 at the end of the year 7 times the highest being 3rd in 2011...in the 100 years prior we were ranked in the AP top 20 exactly 7 times the highest being 5th in 1945.

Btw, an impressive bowl win might get us the 8th time since his tenure began.
Yeah? We also had a high school stadium by comparison for much of that time.
 

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
20,292
9,156
1,743
Earth
Yeah? We also had a high school stadium by comparison for much of that time.
And some of the most re-noun coaches in College and NFL history. It's certainly a combination of things that has contributed but you are VASTLY underestimating Coach's contribution. Thank God the AD isn't.
 
Nov 6, 2010
1,105
419
713
Year to year...last year we lost to teams we should beat and beat teams we should lose too.. This year we beat teams we should beat (sans Tech), beat a team we were favored to lose too (@ISU) and won games despite major setbacks in terms of injured stars including our QB1 and the best receiver in college football. We have 8 wins so far with a chance at 9...last year we won 6 and 7 with the bowl. We are 3rd in Conference from 7th last year. Big opportunity come bowl time. Recruiting means bunk to me look at Texas over Gundy's tenure for facts. Btw, another metric for me is having good citizen players that make their grades and serve in their communities. Bowl games, are a big deal if you win them as they provide momentum for the following year...We suck vs OU, ALWAYS have...that's our ONLY problem in my eyes and NOT an easy one to fix...a systemic program entranced historic problem that takes decades to solve...it certainly won't be solved with a head coaching change at this point in time (which isn't happening, Thank God, so why even throw it out there?) What "great" coach in his right mind would even consider OSU if we fired this coach at this point in our history? He'd have to come coach to a half full BPS with a mad fanbase because we fired our historic coach. What is your metric? What IF KSU had FIRED Snyder? Actually it's stupid to even discuss.
I'm not sure Birry is even suggesting we fire Gundy. I certainly am not. I think it's a matter of being realistic about whether or not OSU can get over that proverbial hump, and if so, stay there. I think Gundy is the man for keeping us at around 8-4 consistently with a clean program, and I understand completely that is no small task with an OU in our backyard. But either we've got to improve significantly in recruiting to break out of the middle pack, or we've got to be seriously innovative, and neither of those seem to be on the horizon. So, we are IMO going to average 7.5 wins per season with Gundy at the helm until he decides to hang it up.
 

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
20,292
9,156
1,743
Earth
I'm not sure Birry is even suggesting we fire Gundy. I certainly am not. I think it's a matter of being realistic about whether or not OSU can get over that proverbial hump, and if so, stay there. I think Gundy is the man for keeping us at around 8-4 consistently with a clean program, and I understand completely that is no small task with an OU in our backyard. But either we've got to improve significantly in recruiting to break out of the middle pack, or we've got to be seriously innovative, and neither of those seem to be on the horizon. So, we are IMO going to average 7.5 wins per season with Gundy at the helm until he decides to hang it up.
Well, that may be semi fair but I think we are moving up from the 8 wins we have already...especially if the two guys stay. They stay and nothing less than 10 wins will be expected next year...they go and you may be right, that's a lot of RB production to replace. However, either way the defense is going to be Steller. Plus the young man coming in from Cali is going to be something in our future...so I don't think you can even say he's entirely done with 2010-11 type years. His kids, maybe, coming into the program might even be motivators. NO ONE saw 2010/11 coming after losing so many in Dez and ZR so who knows what happens.
 
Sep 8, 2014
3,055
2,242
743
50
The back 40
I'm not sure Birry is even suggesting we fire Gundy. I certainly am not. I think it's a matter of being realistic about whether or not OSU can get over that proverbial hump, and if so, stay there. I think Gundy is the man for keeping us at around 8-4 consistently with a clean program, and I understand completely that is no small task with an OU in our backyard. But either we've got to improve significantly in recruiting to break out of the middle pack, or we've got to be seriously innovative, and neither of those seem to be on the horizon. So, we are IMO going to average 7.5 wins per season with Gundy at the helm until he decides to hang it up.
I was pissed at Gundy Saturday night (like I always am after Bedlam) and more than a little drunk (plus the wind at the stadium blew my favorite OSU cap off my head and over the side of the stands..no joke..still pissed about that) but once I sobered up, settled down and had a few days to think about it my philosophical nature has taken over ...

If you missed the posts below on Pistols Firing about Gundy and Bedlam, I really encourage you to read them. They say things better than I could.

All I will add is that Gundy is the best coach we have ever had. He (generally) beats who he should, beats a team or two he shouldn’t and loses to ou. Personally I think he has a ou problem and is making a mistake moving the offense in the direction he is, but I’m not a football coach. I think he needs fearless coordinators who we need to pay better and who will be gone to head coaching jobs in 5 years or less but that’s just me.

I personally think we will kick the crap out of whoever we play in the bowl..whether it’s Notre Dame, Utah or the east Las Vegas school of law and cosmetology..as long as the don’t have “ou” on their helmet I like our chances.

These posts sum things up

https://pistolsfiringblog.com/mike-gundy-has-an-ou-problem-but-osu-has-a-mike-gundy-problem/


https://pistolsfiringblog.com/mike-gundy-has-an-ou-problem-he-will-never-solve/

https://pistolsfiringblog.com/reader-thoughts-osu-actually-has-an-osu-problem/
 

CPTNQUIRK

I'm Your Captain!
A/V Subscriber
Nov 20, 2006
33,681
21,100
1,743
68
In the Boondocks in Creek County, Oklahoma
My stats are for the Gundy era, because that's the context of this discussion. I'm showing you that he isn't a "great" coach. He's better than most that have been at OSU, but he isn't "great". He's created a system that can beat up on teams with lesser talent, and really can't compete with the Top 10. If that's cool with you, then we're just on different planes.
Isn’t that the case with most teams that aren’t blue bloods?
 
Nov 16, 2013
3,842
2,144
743
34
tractor
I was pissed at Gundy Saturday night (like I always am after Bedlam) and more than a little drunk (plus the wind at the stadium blew my favorite OSU cap off my head and over the side of the stands..no joke..still pissed about that) but once I sobered up, settled down and had a few days to think about it my philosophical nature has taken over ...

If you missed the posts below on Pistols Firing about Gundy and Bedlam, I really encourage you to read them. They say things better than I could.

All I will add is that Gundy is the best coach we have ever had. He (generally) beats who he should, beats a team or two he shouldn’t and loses to ou. Personally I think he has a ou problem and is making a mistake moving the offense in the direction he is, but I’m not a football coach. I think he needs fearless coordinators who we need to pay better and who will be gone to head coaching jobs in 5 years or less but that’s just me.

I personally think we will kick the crap out of whoever we play in the bowl..whether it’s Notre Dame, Utah or the east Las Vegas school of law and cosmetology..as long as the don’t have “ou” on their helmet I like our chances.

These posts sum things up

https://pistolsfiringblog.com/mike-gundy-has-an-ou-problem-but-osu-has-a-mike-gundy-problem/


https://pistolsfiringblog.com/mike-gundy-has-an-ou-problem-he-will-never-solve/

https://pistolsfiringblog.com/reader-thoughts-osu-actually-has-an-osu-problem/
I feel your pain about the cap, I lost my favorite cap a few weeks ago and the wind was that bad. I agree with what you are saying and I more than agree with you about the O-Coordinators. Hire the best you can get, pay them a crap load of money, and get out of their way and hope they are so successful you have to do the next man up.
 
Jun 12, 2007
734
237
1,593
This is an unusual year in that so little has leaked out such as which bowls are speaking to which colleges. There have been years in which by now all that we were waiting on was the formal announcement. One year, the evidence pointed us going to the Alamo Bowl so strongly I actually booked a hotel room in San Antonio on Hotwire before the bowl game was announced. I have to admit, I kinda started puckering up the closer it got to announcement time and thank goodness I was right about the Alamo Bowl choosing us. This year, the only bowls we can safely say we won't be in is the Sugar Bowl and the First Responder Bowl.
 
Nov 21, 2018
181
59
78
45
Amelia Island, FL
I don't want to play Utah. No win situation. We win, everyone says, see Utah isn't that great and didn't deserve the play-offs. We lose... well, we lose.
We often talk about how we get no respect. Go back and look at how many games Utah has won since the year 2000. Somehow they fly under the radar even though they have done really well most years.
Utah is about to get “helmet stickered” by uo. Whether there are 2, 4, or 8 teams in the playoff, the last spot will more often than not be surrounded in controversy. I hate that the blue bloods win these arguments every time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Feb 15, 2017
567
373
113
65
Texas
Utah is about to get “helmet stickered” by uo. Whether there are 2, 4, or 8 teams in the playoff, the last spot will more often than not be surrounded in controversy. I hate that the blue bloods win these arguments every time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well, right now there are more blue bloods that pass the eye test than spots in the CFP.
If you open it to 8 teams, and a few blue bloods each season aren't doing great, then there's a real chance for non-blue bloods to play too !
 

kaboy42

Territorial Marshal
May 2, 2007
8,305
8,586
1,743
Utah is about to get “helmet stickered” by uo. Whether there are 2, 4, or 8 teams in the playoff, the last spot will more often than not be surrounded in controversy. I hate that the blue bloods win these arguments every time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This.

I wish just once, the committee would "eye test" their past choking performances and go "you know what? No. This year Utah/Boise State/UCF gets a shot and oU can go crap down their leg in a non-playoff bowl."
 

MustangPokeFan

Territorial Marshal
Sep 9, 2005
7,950
4,018
1,743
Mustang, Ok
www.newshoesband.net
Texas Bowl.......book your room now!
Is this your personal opinion or do you have some insider information? If this is just your personal opinion, you will hereby be called NastradamusPoke if you correct.
It is what Mike Holder told me while we were both eating a chili dog before the Georgetown game. Take that for what it’s worth.
 

wrenhal

Territorial Marshal
Aug 11, 2011
8,946
4,015
743
50
Texas Bowl.......book your room now!
Is this your personal opinion or do you have some insider information? If this is just your personal opinion, you will hereby be called NastradamusPoke if you correct.
It is what Mike Holder told me while we were both eating a chili dog before the Georgetown game. Take that for what it’s worth.
Oh, in other words it's a guess.

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
 
Jul 25, 2018
2,449
639
243
48
Boulder, CO
Well, that may be semi fair but I think we are moving up from the 8 wins we have already...especially if the two guys stay. They stay and nothing less than 10 wins will be expected next year...they go and you may be right, that's a lot of RB production to replace. However, either way the defense is going to be Steller. Plus the young man coming in from Cali is going to be something in our future...so I don't think you can even say he's entirely done with 2010-11 type years. His kids, maybe, coming into the program might even be motivators. NO ONE saw 2010/11 coming after losing so many in Dez and ZR so who knows what happens.



Uh, what?
 

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
20,292
9,156
1,743
Earth
Going into the year the press didn't see it coming...Note our ranking in pre-season in 2010. fyi, we weren't ranked and we were picked 5th (2nd to last) in the South Division which equates to about 10th or 11th in the big 12 (at that time) by the media. People forget how badly they got that wrong.
 
Last edited:
Jan 14, 2006
990
554
1,643
I'm betting LSU and Oregon win, OU beats Baylor and sneaks in to the playoff yet again.

This may set us up for a better bowl but I hate seeing the Sooners make it to the playoffs. The only solace is that they will get waxed by Ohio Lite.