The Market Thread

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NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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I for one am surprised by the resiliency of this market. Let's face it, not a lot to be confident about for at least the next two quarters or so.

On another note, I just subscribed to Investor's Business Daily and after some study and going to some of their seminars, we are going to gradually transition our retirement capital over to self-management. Our advisors have not done well at all with the rebound, as the individual stocks we've selected in another account have far outpaced those in the accounts of the money management. They have been decent bond-traders, but lousy stock pickers. Shares in about 200 companies...about 180 of them we would not personally pick for ourselves.

I should probably add that I graduated finance/accounting double major at OSU and have successfully managed our own portfolio in the past, so we are not going into this cold by any stretch.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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I for one am surprised by the resiliency of this market. Let's face it, not a lot to be confident about for at least the next two quarters or so.

On another note, I just subscribed to Investor's Business Daily and after some study and going to some of their seminars, we are going to gradually transition our retirement capital over to self-management. Our advisors have not done well at all with the rebound, as the individual stocks we've selected in another account have far outpaced those in the accounts of the money management. They have been decent bond-traders, but lousy stock pickers. Shares in about 200 companies...about 180 of them we would not personally pick for ourselves.
IMO, the question is how much faith to put in the tech run, vs how much faith to put in the traditional/Dow stocks. I'm not in Tesla or Amazon, regrettably, but I am in Apple and Nvidia. None of that run is justifiable to me on it's face. When does it turn. Honestly, the stock that I own that I'm most confident in is BUD, and I will probably add to that position in the next few days. I just can't reconcile the tech run to reality, scary to me.
 

NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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IMO, the question is how much faith to put in the tech run, vs how much faith to put in the traditional/Dow stocks. I'm not in Tesla or Amazon, regrettably, but I am in Apple and Nvidia. None of that run is justifiable to me on it's face. When does it turn. Honestly, the stock that I own that I'm most confident in is BUD, and I will probably add to that position in the next few days. I just can't reconcile the tech run to reality, scary to me.
I agree to some extent, but one thing to consider is that we are very likely entering an era of quickening advancement in bioengineering and the ancillary computing needs that go with, as well as in the realm of transportation and the environment. I wouldn't completely discount this run, as I believe there are some big macro-trends underlying it.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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I agree to some extent, but one thing to consider is that we are very likely entering an era of quickening advancement in bioengineering and the ancillary computing needs that go with, as well as in the realm of transportation and the environment. I wouldn't completely discount this run, as I believe there are some big macro-trends underlying it.
OK, so I'll ask you directly about Intel, are they really that far behind the curve, or are they just not the sexy pick now? If the macro trend you're acknowledging is happening, why would their boat not ride up with the tide?
 
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NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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OK, so I'll ask you directly about Intel, are they really that far behind the curve, or are they just not the sexy pick now? If the macro trend you're acknowledging is happening, why would their boat not ride up with the tide?
They have had a number of issues to name a few some critical security flaws that have done harm to their reputation as well as some critical supply chain and production issues. Institutional investors are bailing from long-term holding in INTC and piling into Advanced Micro Devices and NVIDIA, who are quite frankly better innovators and enjoy a better perception in the chip market at this point. NVDA has surpassed Intel in market cap to become #1.

Intel will be resting its hopes on the next generation i7 chip which will have 8 cores and 12 threads, and if they can execute that along with the new i9 and hyperthreading technology, and close the loop on their recent security gaffes, then they should recover well at some point. Right now they are about 16% off their 52 week high, so it's not a dire situation, it's just that they are flat out being outclassed by the more nimble and efficient competitors, AMD, Taiwan Semi (TSM) and NVDA.

There is an article published today about this very topic in Bizjournals, but it is fronted by a paywall. I'll see if I can find it elsewhere. In the mean time, I would not sleep on them. Financially they are still quite strong and continue to grow earnings at a nice clip.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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They have had a number of issues to name a few some critical security flaws that have done harm to their reputation as well as some critical supply chain and production issues. Institutional investors are bailing from long-term holding in INTC and piling into Advanced Micro Devices and NVIDIA, who are quite frankly better innovators and enjoy a better perception in the chip market at this point. NVDA has surpassed Intel in market cap to become #1.

Intel will be resting its hopes on the next generation i7 chip which will have 8 cores and 12 threads, and if they can execute that and close the loop on their recent security gaffes, then they should recover well at some point. Right now they are about 16% off their 52 week high, so it's not a dire situation, it's just that they are flat out being outclassed by the more nimble and efficient competitors, AMD, Taiwan Semi (TSM) and NVDA.

There is an article published today about this very topic in Bizjournals, but it is fronted by a paywall. I'll see if I can find it elsewhere. In the mean time, I would not sleep on them. Financially they are still quite strong and continue to grow earnings at a nice clip.
Thanks, and don't sweat the article. My thinking is INtel has the staying power and balance sheet to weather the ever-advancement, and get ahead of it at some point.
 

NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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Today seemed like a pretty non-descript up day, but there seems to be rotation afoot from the tech high-flyers into beaten down financials and other "value" segments in particular. Some of our low relative-strength stocks (dog-shit) were up between 4-7% today on heavy volume.

If you look at some of the charts, a bunch of them closed right at their 200 day moving average lines.
 

pokes16

Territorial Marshal
Oct 16, 2003
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Today seemed like a pretty non-descript up day, but there seems to be rotation afoot from the tech high-flyers into beaten down financials and other "value" segments in particular. Some of our low relative-strength stocks (dog-shit) were up between 4-7% today on heavy volume.

If you look at some of the charts, a bunch of them closed right at their 200 day moving average lines.
Hmmm. non-descript NARI, NKLA, LVGO, TNA, SSSS, ONEM, SAIL, TWOU
 

oks10

Territorial Marshal
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Sep 9, 2007
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I don't have hardly anything invested in stocks (I mean, other than whatever my 401(k) is being put it) but I'm pretty happy so far with goofing around on Robinhood. I bought a few shares of Vivint Solar a few months back for $5 a share and in the last few weeks it's climbed to just shy of $20. I had some others that were a waste so I just recently sold and bought a fractional share of Tesla. BUT for only investing $35 total I'm sitting at just under $100. On one hand I wish I'd put more in in the beginning but on the other I know it was probably better for the long run I didn't. I'm not wanting to dump a lot of money, just want to play really and if I make some money off it, great. Chart below shows my activity since I started in November (where the flat line stops).
1594846523860.png
 

osupsycho

MAXIMUM EFFORT!!!
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Apr 20, 2005
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Thanks, and don't sweat the article. My thinking is INtel has the staying power and balance sheet to weather the ever-advancement, and get ahead of it at some point.
Intel is the preferred processor for almost all datacenters. The others have their place but will not be taking Intel down anytime soon.
 

NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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Intel is the preferred processor for almost all datacenters. The others have their place but will not be taking Intel down anytime soon.
I would never dispute that, but from a return on investment perspective TSM and AMD look better over the intermediate term.

Plus, I think the problems INTC faced regarding security flaws is a very real issue that will take time to mend.