Wuhan Coronavirus

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CPTNQUIRK

I'm Your Captain!
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Nov 20, 2006
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In the Boondocks in Creek County, Oklahoma
Shelter in place order issued for all Tulsa county at midnight tonight ....mayor said army Corp of engineers scouting places to build new hospital now ...said shelter in place order last until April 16 but may be extended through mid May based on modeling data
It seems like the QuikTrip center at the fairgrounds is the obvious choice.
 

State

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Mar 15, 2007
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...wDztAqZ8I4WGIZBuU9ZijThMynA2oOgfgyATlvQN2hXbQ

This is an interesting tool to play with. Before I found this, I was looking at the numbers yesterday and almost no matter what we do, it's probably going to be bad. If we did nothing at all, we would probably have had 1 million dead. The 2009 swine flu had an r0 of 1.5 and infected about 61 million people in the US, with 274k hospitalization, and 12500 deaths. Coronavirus has an r0 of around 2.2-2.3 and in the US CFR appears to be something like 0.01, so more easily transmittable and deadlier than the 2009 flu.

The impact of weather is pretty unknown, but using the mid-point for this. I left the length of intervention at 15 days. Intervention level I consider moderate, because those identified to support critical infrastructure is still a size-able population moving around. March 16th is the date used as that's when the 15 days to slow the spread began. That comes to about 250,000-300,000 dead from Covid-19. Extending the length to 28 days because I expect the feds to suggest extending it and many states are already planning shut downs that long (open by Easter) and it about cuts in half to around 130,000.

My problem with this model though is if you input the r0 and CFR for swine flu and reduce mitigating factors to nothing, it under represents the actual swine flu numbers.

cites
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/
 
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Binman4OSU

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Aug 31, 2007
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Stupid about AGW!!
Dr Fauci is now saying the task force models predicting 100k to 200k deaths and millions of cases in US...said he doesn't want to make a prediction because it is a moving Target and doesn't want to be held to a number
 
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Rack

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Oct 13, 2004
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https://www.stwnewspress.com/commun...cle_6f9b2e4a-7142-11ea-8185-3f19748ed221.html
City of Stillwater to issue Shelter in Place order
Stillwater Mayor Will Joyce announced Saturday that the City of Stillwater will be following Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Norman in issuing orders for residents to shelter in place that will probably take effect Tuesday morning.

The details regarding enforcement and application are under development and will be discussed at length when the City Council meets at 5:30 p.m. on Monday.
Gotta be like the cool kids . Hope it all works, we have certainly mobilized.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
Just some idle thoughts when considering my movements over the past 2 months.....

January 16-27: Zermatt, Switzerland, Breuil-Cervinia, Italy
  • Italy - Europe's worst COVID-19 outbreak
  • Switzerland - Europe's worst infection rate
Februsary 9-14: Telluride, Colorado
  • Site of the USA's most comprehensive COVID-19 pathogen study
March 1-5: San Francisco/Sonoma, California
  • Grand Princess passenger tests positive in Sonoma on Mar 2
Jan-Mar 2020: Summit/Eagle County, Colorado (home)
  • Site of the one of the USA's worst infection rates - 182 cases, population 54k
    - my two partners in a local real estate venture test positive

Something significant follows me everywhere I go
 
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Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
21,198
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Earth
Just some idle thoughts when considering my movements over the past 2 months.....

January 16-27: Zermatt, Switzerland, Breuil-Cervinia, Italy
  • Italy - Europe's worst COVID-19 outbreak
  • Switzerland - Europe's worst infection rate
Februsary 9-14: Telluride, Colorado
  • Site of the USA's most comprehensive COVID-19 pathogen study
March 1-5: San Francisco/Sonoma, California
  • Grand Princess passenger tests positive in Sonoma on Mar 2
Jan-Mar 2020: Summit/Eagle County, Colorado (home)
  • Site of the one of the USA's worst infection rates - 182 cases, population 54k
    - my two partners in a local real estate venture test positive

Something significant follows me everywhere I go
Wow, you are a traveling man...I'm just a bit jealous...Just from your thoughts here...you might ought to just stay home a bit...btw, I hope your partners are ok or improving...

Btw, as a fellow traveler, what types of changes do you expect from airports, airlines, and the hotel industry to attempt to get us back on the 'road' and the friendly sky's after this dies down? After 911 we flew again fairy soon due to enhanced security procedures we implemented quickly. I would think that we would put a ton of money and effort into new ways to be clean and virus free in our worlds airports hotels and restaurants leading up to a slow re-opening of the world. You are a great example of how small the world has become, and it's benefits overall, FAR ought weigh it's risk...My sincere hope is that we can innovate our way back to world wide safe travel in the semi short term. Would love to hear some ideas that the board might have...
 

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
21,198
9,429
1,743
Earth
The number of new cases in Oklahoma has declined the past 4 days. Interesting. We saw a big jump on Wednesday, but has declined every day since then. I have no idea how many tests we are doing per day.
Wondering out loud why this might be...

Did we finish the testing on the hospitalized patients?
Did we not start the OSU testing yet?
Do we have less people to test patients over the weekend?

Will be interesting to see Monday and Tuesdays numbers to see if this is a true trend or just an explainable decline in rate of growth due to a temporary testing decline. I would expect growth in the number early in the week just due to this...if we don't see it then that may be a good sign.
 
Sep 29, 2011
1,307
294
713
60
Breckenridge, CO
Just some idle thoughts when considering my movements over the past 2 months.....

January 16-27: Zermatt, Switzerland, Breuil-Cervinia, Italy
  • Italy - Europe's worst COVID-19 outbreak
  • Switzerland - Europe's worst infection rate
Februsary 9-14: Telluride, Colorado
  • Site of the USA's most comprehensive COVID-19 pathogen study
March 1-5: San Francisco/Sonoma, California
  • Grand Princess passenger tests positive in Sonoma on Mar 2
Jan-Mar 2020: Summit/Eagle County, Colorado (home)
  • Site of the one of the USA's worst infection rates - 182 cases, population 54k
    - my two partners in a local real estate venture test positive

Something significant follows me everywhere I go
Wow, you are a traveling man...I'm just a bit jealous...Just from your thoughts here...you might ought to just stay home a bit...btw, I hope your partners are ok or improving...

Btw, as a fellow traveler, what types of changes do you expect from airports, airlines, and the hotel industry to attempt to get us back on the 'road' and the friendly sky's after this dies down? After 911 we flew again fairy soon due to enhanced security procedures we implemented quickly. I would think that we would put a ton of money and effort into new ways to be clean and virus free in our worlds airports hotels and restaurants leading up to a slow re-opening of the world. You are a great example of how small the world has become, and it's benefits overall, FAR ought weigh it's risk...My sincere hope is that we can innovate our way back to world wide safe travel in the semi short term. Would love to hear some ideas that the board might have...
Here’s what’s really crazy.......I was supposed to land in New Delhi, India in about 6 hours for a 2-week visit. Yikes!!!

It’s hard to say what’s gonna change, but it could be they’ll install temperature monitors at airport security gates to weed out sick travelers. But that seems to have a lot of potential pitfalls.

In the near-term once restrictions are lifted, we’ll probably stick to RV travel here in the US and Canada. Kinda down on international destinations after hearing about all the nightmares abroad.


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osupsycho

MAXIMUM EFFORT!!!
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Apr 20, 2005
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Valhalla
Just some idle thoughts when considering my movements over the past 2 months.....

January 16-27: Zermatt, Switzerland, Breuil-Cervinia, Italy
  • Italy - Europe's worst COVID-19 outbreak
  • Switzerland - Europe's worst infection rate
Februsary 9-14: Telluride, Colorado
  • Site of the USA's most comprehensive COVID-19 pathogen study
March 1-5: San Francisco/Sonoma, California
  • Grand Princess passenger tests positive in Sonoma on Mar 2
Jan-Mar 2020: Summit/Eagle County, Colorado (home)
  • Site of the one of the USA's worst infection rates - 182 cases, population 54k
    - my two partners in a local real estate venture test positive

Something significant follows me everywhere I go
You happen to spend anytime in Norman?
 
Sep 29, 2011
1,307
294
713
60
Breckenridge, CO
Just some idle thoughts when considering my movements over the past 2 months.....

January 16-27: Zermatt, Switzerland, Breuil-Cervinia, Italy
  • Italy - Europe's worst COVID-19 outbreak
  • Switzerland - Europe's worst infection rate
Februsary 9-14: Telluride, Colorado
  • Site of the USA's most comprehensive COVID-19 pathogen study
March 1-5: San Francisco/Sonoma, California
  • Grand Princess passenger tests positive in Sonoma on Mar 2
Jan-Mar 2020: Summit/Eagle County, Colorado (home)
  • Site of the one of the USA's worst infection rates - 182 cases, population 54k
    - my two partners in a local real estate venture test positive

Something significant follows me everywhere I go
You happen to spend anytime in Norman?
In that I have the luxury of only traveling to locations I want to travel - hell no!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk