7 point dog going into Ames

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Jul 25, 2018
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#21
Your Iowa/OSU comparison actually makes a really good argument… against yourself. Football is a game of matchups. If we’re similar to Iowa, then we should match up well with Iowa State. We both have a stifling defense and a mediocre offense. We both have been thorns in Campbell’s side.

Using your argument, we need to keep an eye out for a team like Purdue who was a match up issue for Iowa. But we should match up well against ISU.
Glad you agree.
 
Jul 25, 2018
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#22
Maybe I'm wrong I'll go back and look...didn't think he ever lost to them, maybe wrong. He has lost to them 2 times in his 16 years as our head coach...That I know, lost 1 of four or five since their new coach has taken over.
Turns out it was Rusty Rankin, not Williams or Gundy that day. Bitterly cold and bitterly disappointing loss as we were ranked #7 at the time.
 
Mar 8, 2010
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#26
I’m glad we dogs in this game. It will help to keep our guys focused. Gundy should invite Blackmon and Weeden in to talk to the team about the bad things that can happen in Ames.
 
Jul 9, 2011
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#27
Vegas lines are about betting money flow, not predicting who will win the game. The sports books goal is to get as close to possible 50% of betting money on each team. If public perception of one or both team is off, either too high or too low, their spread will be off. I read an article that there always tends to be a lot of "dumb" money bet on the Dallas Cowboys and that the spreads for their games are adjusted because of that.
 
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Jul 9, 2011
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Carlos, TX
#28
Unfortunately, cautionary tales won't fix our offense.
Average points scored on Texas this year is 29.2, and we scored 32. Even if you allow for the "gimme" touchdown from inside the Texas 10 yard line, we would still have scored a TD or FG from there anyway, and we would have been right at their average points given up. Martin didn't make a catch on an open deep pass in the first series and another in the end zone for a TD. If either or both of those catches had been made the score would have looked a lot better early. Our offense is getting better and was not bad against UT.

BTW - so glad to see throws to RB's, drag routes and other throws over the middle between the hashes, and QB RPO's, like the TD pass to Pressley. We forced UT in to playing two safeties back to take away the intermediate throws over the middle, and that opened up the running game. This is exactly what I was asking for a few weeks ago when we were trying to force the running game; teams were playing a single deep safety and an extra linebacker against the run. The Fox commentator was asking why UT was in a two deep safety defense late in the game; I knew - we had shown the ability to connect on the intermediate pass if they went to one deep.

If the coaches can keep SS from throwing off his back foot, which causes him to throw high, we will do even better. Sanders is used to throwing out of RPO and is still learning to throw out of the pocket.
 
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Jan 13, 2008
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#29
Vegas lines are about betting money flow, not predicting who will win the game. The sports books goal is to get as close to possible 50% of betting money on each team. If public perception of one or both team is off, either too high or too low, their spread will be off. I read an article that there always tends to be a lot of "dumb" money bet on the Dallas Cowboys and that the spreads for their games are adjusted because of that.
Seeing anything from 68% to 81% of the bets on OSU. Do not know the size of the bets, so that may be keeping the line where it is. The line has actually moved towards ISU since opening.

While most games end up with the sportsbooks just collecting rakes, their big payday's are when they have a game they feel good about setting a line that will prompt bettors to go heavy the opposite way. Then they can get 70% of the field to lose, $$$.

This could be that game and the sportsbooks actually see ISU as a 10 point favorite, so they are forcing money on the OSU side for a big payday. Setting a line at ISU -7, when the average bettor sees it as an ISU -4 results in heavy OSU betting and the sportsbooks' mind gives them a 3 point margin (-10 vs -7) for error.

I don't think that is the case for this game, but it is a possibility.

I'm one of the average bettors that thinks this line is way off and should be closer to the -3/-4 homefield advantage or even a push. The last 6 games have been decided by a 7 or less points.
 

wrenhal

Federal Marshal
Aug 11, 2011
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#30
We must have zero clout being a 7 point dog to cyclones who are UNRANKED.

Zero respect. I may bet on OSU this week.
Rankings mean nothing to Vegas. We were rated well ahead of tx last weekend, yet were anywhere from 3.5 to 5 point dogs.
But Vegas knows their stuff and are right a lot.....
/Sarcasm
We are 6-0 and this time isn't the first that we've been the underdog and it won't be the last.

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CocoCincinnati

Federal Marshal
Feb 7, 2007
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#31
I remember the only game I ever attended in Ames. Don't remember the year but I remember their opening drive covering 110 yards for a TD due to multiple dead ball penalties on them. I expect this defense to take advantage of 3rd and longs if given that chance.... hopefully they do.

I think Texas is pretty weak, mentally and physically, and I think other teams will be able to push them around in the 4th quarter....I don't expect the same from Iowa state....gonna have to line up and play a full game.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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#32
AND we won by 8...is what it is...we will have to play better offense to win, but this defense WILL keep us in every single game late. Just would love to see the offense break out in this game early and often and retain that all game for once...I hope all the guys only read the Vegas line all week and forget the polls...they mean squat until we win...this game is the difference between a championship possibility of a season and just another bowl one IMHO...A very very important game.
Meh, if we have to lose one this probably isn't a bad one to drop. We'd still be tied with them and Baylor for second place, and we'd have our two toughest road games in the rearview and Kansas still to play. A road loss to a good Iowa State team won't look bad come December and may refocus the team for the rest of the year. That said, a win would be pretty huge and almost guarantee a spot in the CCG.
 
Jul 9, 2011
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#33
Seeing anything from 68% to 81% of the bets on OSU. Do not know the size of the bets, so that may be keeping the line where it is. The line has actually moved towards ISU since opening.

While most games end up with the sportsbooks just collecting rakes, their big payday's are when they have a game they feel good about setting a line that will prompt bettors to go heavy the opposite way. Then they can get 70% of the field to lose, $$$.

This could be that game and the sportsbooks actually see ISU as a 10 point favorite, so they are forcing money on the OSU side for a big payday. Setting a line at ISU -7, when the average bettor sees it as an ISU -4 results in heavy OSU betting and the sportsbooks' mind gives them a 3 point margin (-10 vs -7) for error.

I don't think that is the case for this game, but it is a possibility.

I'm one of the average bettors that thinks this line is way off and should be closer to the -3/-4 homefield advantage or even a push. The last 6 games have been decided by a 7 or less points.
Could be - based on history and results to date I would be surprised if they are that confident about this game either way; but plays like that do happen. Bottom line is Vegas lines do not necessarily represent what they think the actual spread will be; it's all about the Benjamins.
 
Jan 14, 2006
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#34
Part of me is terrified of this game. Good team, on the road, we're coming off a big win.

But another part of me thinks our o is about to hit its stride. Seems like we've been a hair off on our big pass plays since k-state. Every week we stay healthy at receiver, the better our timing will be. Once that hits, we may be legit contenders.
 

llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
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#35
Doing the breakdown, Iowa State should be favored by 7. Vegas has applied no extra points to the home team. Statistically, they are exactly 7. It is interesting that they didn’t receive any points for being at home, so if I were making the line, I might add 2 to 3 more. But, there’s a few numbers I might throw out or tweak. We played the harder schedule so far. Their best game was last weekend and so was ours. Their struggles with UNI are equal to our opener. It’s interesting that they were favored in their road loss to Baylor but not favored in their win at ksu. 4th qtr strength conditioning goes to OSU.

We will have to watch the spread and wait for the adjustments.
 

Inky29

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Nov 13, 2003
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#36
Personally I'm curious to see how well we do covering their TE's. The ISU offense is just enough different than most that we have faced that it might expose a weakness we haven't seen yet. Or who knows, maybe our LB's and Safeties are amazing in pass coverage. Purdy has been up and down this year but has really come on strong during conference play, completing 70% of his passes and only throwing one INT. With that being said, the key to beating ISU is shutting down Hall. It's easy to hit 70% of your passes if the linebackers are so focused on the guy running for 7 yards a touch (which he has in conference play). Shut down Hall and Im not sure Purdy can throw them to victory if the play action isn't effective.

Our offense is likely still going to be an insanely heavy dose of Warren and Jekyll and Hyde type play from Sanders. I really want one complete game by the offense and we've yet to see it this year, regardless of the opponent.

I'm expecting another close game, by this point in the season my heart is ready for it.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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#37
Personally I'm curious to see how well we do covering their TE's. The ISU offense is just enough different than most that we have faced that it might expose a weakness we haven't seen yet. Or who knows, maybe our LB's and Safeties are amazing in pass coverage. Purdy has been up and down this year but has really come on strong during conference play, completing 70% of his passes and only throwing one INT. With that being said, the key to beating ISU is shutting down Hall. It's easy to hit 70% of your passes if the linebackers are so focused on the guy running for 7 yards a touch (which he has in conference play). Shut down Hall and Im not sure Purdy can throw them to victory if the play action isn't effective.

Our offense is likely still going to be an insanely heavy dose of Warren and Jekyll and Hyde type play from Sanders. I really want one complete game by the offense and we've yet to see it this year, regardless of the opponent.

I'm expecting another close game, by this point in the season my heart is ready for it.
FWIW, whenever I see Purdy, he’s almost always just pedestrian when pressured.


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Nov 6, 2010
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#39
Personally I'm curious to see how well we do covering their TE's. The ISU offense is just enough different than most that we have faced that it might expose a weakness we haven't seen yet. Or who knows, maybe our LB's and Safeties are amazing in pass coverage. Purdy has been up and down this year but has really come on strong during conference play, completing 70% of his passes and only throwing one INT. With that being said, the key to beating ISU is shutting down Hall. It's easy to hit 70% of your passes if the linebackers are so focused on the guy running for 7 yards a touch (which he has in conference play). Shut down Hall and Im not sure Purdy can throw them to victory if the play action isn't effective.

Our offense is likely still going to be an insanely heavy dose of Warren and Jekyll and Hyde type play from Sanders. I really want one complete game by the offense and we've yet to see it this year, regardless of the opponent.

I'm expecting another close game, by this point in the season my heart is ready for it.
Seems I remember KHP giving their tight ends a lot of trouble a year or two ago. Hoping for more of that from him.
 
Feb 28, 2007
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#40
whoops I guess Gundy is 13-3 vs them as head coach, then?
According to the Tulsa World last Sunday, Gundy is 10-3 against ISU and has won 8 of the last 9. I believe only two B12 teams beat ISU last year, OSU and OU.

Should be a close game, but I think bring an underdog here may actually be to our advantage. Certainly prevents OSU from thinking too much about Texas win.