7 point dog going into Ames

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TheMonkey

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#41
According to the Tulsa World last Sunday, Gundy is 10-3 against ISU and has won 8 of the last 9. I believe only two B12 teams beat ISU last year, OSU and OU.

Should be a close game, but I think bring an underdog here may actually be to our advantage. Certainly prevents OSU from thinking too much about Texas win.
And technically they split with OU, beating them in the regular season then losing the CCG.
 
Mar 8, 2010
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#43
Well history tells us that we’re going to get beat by someone we shouldn’t lose to. It’s happened to OSU nearly every year since Fenimore’s team went undefeated. If it’s not ISU then probably TCU.
 
Jan 2, 2005
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#44
Well history tells us that we’re going to get beat by someone we shouldn’t lose to. It’s happened to OSU nearly every year since Fenimore’s team went undefeated. If it’s not ISU then probably TCU.
Since Vegas say's we shouldn't win this one, I like our prospects. TCU on the other hand, has been a handful in recent years....
 

PokeJ

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#46
Well history tells us that we’re going to get beat by someone we shouldn’t lose to. It’s happened to OSU nearly every year since Fenimore’s team went undefeated. If it’s not ISU then probably TCU.
Evidently we are supposed to lose to ISU just like we were supposed to lose to Texas and Boise. We are already on the plus side 2 games.


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Birry

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Feb 6, 2007
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#47
Maybe these teams are evenly matched, but 7 points seems high. From what I've seen so far, I would trust our defense to keep us closer than that. Not sure how anyone wouldn't predict a win, even in Ames.

Seems weird that we're respected enough to be in the top 10, but not respected enough for them to predict a win against an unranked team...
 
Nov 18, 2010
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#48
We just need to reproduce the 4th quarter in Austin over and over again. It's possible...time will tell.
A big part of that is that our guys were in better condition than Texas. Those 5 stars got tired. Our 3-4 star lineman on both sides started pushing them around at will.
 
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Jul 9, 2011
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#54
Sagarin has Iowa State at #9 and Oklahoma State at #11.
Interesting. Sagarin has us with a much harder schedule than ISU (#14 vs #45). We are 6-0 vs that schedule to date with KU, WVU, TCU Tech and OU scheduled after ISU. ISU has WVU, UT, Tech, OU and TCU left after us. So eliminating common opponents, the difference in the remaining schedule is KU for us vs UT for ISU. We have an easier remaining schedule. That means, based on Sagarins schedule rating, that so far this season we have played a much harder schedule than ISU.

So if we are 6-0 vs a much harder schedule YTD, vs ISU at 4-2 vs a much easier schedule YTD, how in the hell are they rated two slots higher? Based on the data shown it makes no sense. I think he has cookie crumbs in his program.....
 

Cimarron

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Interesting. Sagarin has us with a much harder schedule than ISU (#14 vs #45). We are 6-0 vs that schedule to date with KU, WVU, TCU Tech and OU scheduled after ISU. ISU has WVU, UT, Tech, OU and TCU left after us. So eliminating common opponents, the difference in the remaining schedule is KU for us vs UT for ISU. We have an easier remaining schedule. That means, based on Sagarins schedule rating, that so far this season we have played a much harder schedule than ISU.

So if we are 6-0 vs a much harder schedule YTD, vs ISU at 4-2 vs a much easier schedule YTD, how in the hell are they rated two slots higher? Based on the data shown it makes no sense. I think he has cookie crumbs in his program.....
I'm not sure what all is in his model, but it's not just about winning and losing, but point spread.

The above sagarin ranking has equal weighting for every game. i.e. the first game of the season weighted the same as the last game. He also has a "recent" ranking where the later games carry more weight in the model. In that ranking OSU is #8 and Iowa State is #15.

Using the recent model OSU is favored by 1.2 points.
Using his primary rating ISU is favored by 3 points.

Both of those include a home field advantage to ISU of 2.74 and 2.75 points, respectively.


OSU 27
ISU 26

Go Pokes
 
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Jul 9, 2011
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#56
I'm not sure what all is in his model, but it's not just about winning and losing, but point spread.

The above sagarin ranking has equal weighting for every game. i.e. the first game of the season weighted the same as the last game. He also has a "recent" ranking where the later games carry more weight in the model. In that ranking OSU is #8 and Iowa State is #15.

Using the recent model OSU is favored by 1.2 points.
Using his primary rating ISU is favored by 3 points.

Both of those include a home field advantage to ISU of 2.74 and 2.75 points, respectively.


OSU 27
ISU 26

Go Pokes
That makes more sense.
 
Apr 12, 2020
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#57
We have to be real and realize that Iowa State looks fantastic in the efficiency metrics and is a better team than the record indicates.

But the other side should see that we are a very good match up vs them and their efficiency holds up more because of how well they performed vs poor** opponents.


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Birry

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#58
We have to be real and realize that Iowa State looks fantastic in the efficiency metrics and is a better team than the record indicates.

But the other side should see that we are a very good match up vs them and their efficiency holds up more because of how well they performed vs poor** opponents.


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Not trying to jinx us, but from what I've seen our defense is good enough to stop almost anyone, including a few teams above us in the rankings. We have yet to see a team consistently move the ball and score points against us, and I have a hard time believing ISU is up to that task.