Alum in AZ
August 2018
To create my ranked list, I needed to establish criteria and associated point values. I based my criteria on readily-available data and subjectively assigned points based on what I thought was important.
My Criteria:
- Championships – This is what really matters, right? Each Natty is worth 10 points. Since there is no clear NCAA champion in CFP, I took the championships “claimed” by each school on the ever-reliable source… Wikipedia. Yes, OSU claims 1945… but we don’t claim the 2011 championship selected by “Colley Matrix”. Alabama claims everything.
- Wins – There’s a reason we track Win/Loss records. Seems secondary in importance only to Championships. Each win worth 0.1 point. No points for ties. Source: sports-reference.com/cfb/schools. To keep it simple, I did not make adjustments applied after the fact by the NCAA (e.g., USC gets 11 wins for 2005, not 0).
- Heisman Trophies – Each Heisman is worth 10 points. The ultimate individual award – but one that requires program excellence and brings a lot of visibility to the program. Source: Each program’s Wikipedia page.
- Bowl Games – Part of the pageantry and tradition of College Football. 1 point for an appearance in a Bowl… 2 more for winning the game. Source: Source: sports-reference.com/cfb/schools.
- College Football Playoff/BCS Championship Game Appearances – Each appearance is worth 5 points (win or lose). This metric has some recency bias as the BCS Championship Game has only been in effect since the end of the 1998 season. But still seemed appropriate to recognize significance of reaching the “Final Four” (or Finals) equivalent. Source: Source: sports-reference.com/cfb/schools.
- Conference Championships – Each Conference Championship is worth 3 points. I debated whether to include this, since it works against Independents like Note Dame, Penn State (for much of their history), and Army. But I ultimately decided that claiming a championship – and the publicity that goes with it – is relevant to the discussion. Source: Usually each program’s Wikipedia page.
- And finally…
- History – History is clearly important, but recent history is more important. I addressed this by creating four eras and discounting the value of points depending on how much dust is on the trophy. Here are the eras: 1) “Pre-1950” (think leather helmets) – 20% weighting, 2) “50’s/60’s/70’s” (think single-bar facemasks) – 50% weighting, 3) “80’s-90’s” (think massive shoulder pads) – 80% weighting, and 4) “2000+” (think HD TV highlights) – 100% weighting. This means that OSU’s claimed 1945 National Championship is only worth 2 points (10 x 20%).
Summary of Results and Observations
As expected, my ranking closely mirrored ESPN’s list. In fact the Top 20 of both lists were the same schools except for two – my list included BYU and Washington and did not include Michigan State and UCLA. In my analysis, BYU benefitted from many small conference championships over the years and Washington benefitted from 3 (old) national championships. Independents did indeed suffer in my rankings without points from conference championships. And less traditional schools tended to place a bit higher in my rankings as there was not a premium placed on “Power 5” wins. The images are eye-charts, but they show the Top 10 from my rankings (plus Oklahoma State) with the values driving ranking points as well as points obtained by category and era. Also shown are images of the full “Top 60” and how my ranking compares to ESPN’s list.
Top 10 (plus Oklahoma State) – Raw Data and Total Points
Top 10 (plus Oklahoma State) – Points by Category and by Era
ESPN’s “Top 60” Ordered by My Point Totals
Analyzing the Trend Across the Four Eras
It was really interesting to study the trends of the programs over the course of the four eras. I grouped the programs into 5 “buckets” in each era – the elite Top 10 (dark green), the next 13 (light green), the middle 14 (yellow), a lower 13 (orange), and the Bottom 10 (red). By grouping and sorting with these colors, I subjectively created seven “categories” for the 60 college football programs. These labels are: True Blue Bloods, New Blue Bloods, Fading Powers, Rising Powers, Respectable Non-Elite, Mediocre, and “Smithsonian”. In the images below you will see some program names in red font. Those are the programs that have won National Championships since 2000.
True Blue Bloods: Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio State, USC, Nebraska, Texas, Georgia. These are the only programs that are “green” in each of the eras. All but Georgia and Nebraska have won a championship in the 2000’s. Nebraska is barely hanging on, but with a Heisman in the 2000’s, they still fall into this category.
New Blue Bloods: Florida State, Florida, Miami, Clemson, LSU, Auburn. These programs were not “green” across the board like the True Bluebloods, but they are all green since the 80’s-90’s era and all have won a championship in the 2000’s. (LSU is a slight outlier in that they were “yellow” in the 80’s-90’s but are Top 10 in the 2000’s).
Fading Powers: Michigan, Tennessee, Notre Dame, BYU, Penn State, Washington, Michigan State, UCLA, Arizona State, Colorado. These programs have all dropped from peaks in either the 80’s90’s or the 50’s-70’s. BYU and Michigan State both score in the green for the 2000’s, but they are clearly below their Top 10 peaks in earlier eras.
Rising Powers: Oregon, Wisconsin, TCU, West Virginia, Utah, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Louisville. An interesting list of programs with “green” success in the 2000’s, but nothing of note in prior eras. Oregon is Top 10 for the 2000's and is closest to being able to break into the "New Blue Bloods" category.
Respectable Non-Elites: Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Iowa, Arkansas, Pittsburgh, Stanford, NC State, Texas Tech. I was surprised to see Stanford land here, but they only have 10 bowl appearances and 5 bowl wins in the 2000's. Ole Miss, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech could perhaps fit into the Fading Powers category.
Smithsonian (a Blue Blood of a bygone era): Syracuse, Minnesota, Missouri, Cal, Illinois, Purdue, Army. Lots of dust on these trophies and lots of “red” since the 80’s.
Last edited by a moderator:
-
4
-
10
- Show all
