BYU, Cincy, Houston, UCF will join B12 07/23

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Midnight Toker

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#82
Well there might be a couple reasons for that.
One could be that while Oklahoma and Texas remain in the big 12, they will be the top two recruiting teams in the conference. So if they are gone, then that might open up some doors.

And of course there’s having a deal with Oklahoma and texas on the field. Yeah, we know Texas sucks and they haven’t been a threat for a while, but Sarkisian knows offense and now he has a quarterback so they could be a threat. Maybe.

Then if there is no negotiation for a buyout, that means the big 12 would receive zero dollars from a negotiated settlement to see these two programs leave. They would just play out their contract, continue to dominate in recruiting and more than likely continue winning the conference.

Other reasons might include just getting a fresh new start with the new teams. So it’s truly the new big 12. I think it would be funny if all these new teams came into the conference and either OU or Texas won it anyway.

But on the other hand, I can see that they don’t want to help them. And negotiating a lower fee to exit would certainly help them. And of course then there’s all the loss of tv revenue and TV viewership numbers. But if they Believe these four new teams would make up for that loss, then it’s no big deal.

So then it just comes down to the bottom line, what does the big 12 gain from keeping these two teams in the conference for the next three seasons? I suppose the payouts to each team would continue to be as high as they are now, and they would be significantly less otherwise without them. Having two blue bloods in the conference does help their reputation of the conference. Increases the likelihood of a playoff or NY6 bowl from the conference

But that good also comes with the bad. That is having to deal with your ex while still living in the same house. And your ex is always leaving the lights on, doesn’t put away the food, and flirting with your new girlfriend, and keeps winning. You have to deal with the possibility, and very real likelihood of having to suffer defeats in recruiting in on the field to your ex who would move out if you just let them.
I think you misunderstand the terms of the exit fees. There is an exit fee PLUS an early termination fee (media rights).

Each school owes approximately $80m to exit the the conference (2 years payout). That’s if you leave in 2023, 2025, or 2055.

If you leave before 2025 - the Big12 owns your media rights so its $80m + payout for 2023 and/or 2024.

You’re not leaving for nothing

Cost to leave
2025+: $80m
2024: $120m
2023: $160m

Now a finance/contract guru would be able to determine a break even point for the conference. Less revenue but less mouths to feed. \_(ツ)_/¯ so there is a number that makes sense to allow OU/UT to leave early. But there is not a number that makes sense to reduce the exit fee.

I could be wrong on this, please show me if I am.

I’m not sure about recruiting and x girlfriends but the Big12 should act in the best financial interest of the remaining and new schools.
Oh I know about all that. But what I’m getting at is what sort of money does the big 12 stand to gain from Oklahoma and Texas staying in the conference? If they leave early, they can negotiate a fee. If they don’t leave early there’s no fee. And yeah, the payouts will be bigger with Oklahoma and Texas for the next three years, but those payouts are still split 10 ways. But unless I’m wrong, wouldn’t the negotiated fee be split among the remaining 8 teams?

Otherwise, if they stay, then they will continue to get between 35 and $40 million a year in revenue distribution from the big 12.

And sure, there definitely is a breakeven point and I suspect that point would be before 2025 but the best financial interest of the remaining teams in the conference might also mean they will have to risk watching Oklahoma or Texas run the conference during that time. It will mean they have to recruit against them for a lot of the same players. But maybe that’s worth a few extra million dollars a year, because we all know at the end of the day the new big 12 revenues are going to Leave them behind the other major conferences. I suppose that’s the reality they are dealing with so they want to remain as relevant as possible for as long as possible which I get
 

Midnight Toker

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#83
Right, but that was because Riley was checked out, remember? They were really ready to move on from him anyway and Venables is the next coming of Stoops.
That’s a convenient story. We’ll see what happens this year.
Honestly it feels really inconvenient. Reports are that his representatives had been negotiating with USC for several months. It’s one thing when your coach leaves, it’s another when he’s ruminating about for months behind closed doors while he’s supposed to be coaching his team to his full ability. Would you be able to do your job fully & completely under these circumstances? Maybe, but it seems like a reasonable explanation for his meh performance last season
 

gundysburner

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#84
Honestly it feels really inconvenient. Reports are that his representatives had been negotiating with USC for several months. It’s one thing when your coach leaves, it’s another when he’s ruminating about for months behind closed doors while he’s supposed to be coaching his team to his full ability. Would you be able to do your job fully & completely under these circumstances? Maybe, but it seems like a reasonable explanation for his meh performance last season
Lol, from Eschbach? That was radio gold on that Sunday afternoon between him & Murdoch. Like Robert Allen after Miles took the LSU job type of gold.
 
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#85
Other conferences don't consider the new Big 12 to even be a power conference.
The B12 had the best winning % in bowl games last season (5-2). The Pac12 went 0-5, and was a freaking joke; the ACC went 2-4 and was also pretty pitiful. The B1G is very top-heavy with tOSU, Michigan, Wiscy, Iowa (Penn St. and Mich St. sometimes), and a bunch of mediocrity after that. The B12 is at worst a solid #3 in the pecking order.
 
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#86
Oh I know about all that. But what I’m getting at is what sort of money does the big 12 stand to gain from Oklahoma and Texas staying in the conference? If they leave early, they can negotiate a fee. If they don’t leave early there’s no fee. And yeah, the payouts will be bigger with Oklahoma and Texas for the next three years, but those payouts are still split 10 ways. But unless I’m wrong, wouldn’t the negotiated fee be split among the remaining 8 teams?

Otherwise, if they stay, then they will continue to get between 35 and $40 million a year in revenue distribution from the big 12.

And sure, there definitely is a breakeven point and I suspect that point would be before 2025 but the best financial interest of the remaining teams in the conference might also mean they will have to risk watching Oklahoma or Texas run the conference during that time. It will mean they have to recruit against them for a lot of the same players. But maybe that’s worth a few extra million dollars a year, because we all know at the end of the day the new big 12 revenues are going to Leave them behind the other major conferences. I suppose that’s the reality they are dealing with so they want to remain as relevant as possible for as long as possible which I get
“Will have to risk watching Oklahoma or Texas run the conference during that time.”

Texas hasn’t done a damn thing in 12 years… OU is a dumpster fire in a multi-year rebuild. If that’s our risk, sign me up.

Honestly, Baylor is the biggest threat for the next couple years.

It would probably be in OUs best interest to stay for 3 years. Allow BV a chance to figure out how to be a HC, establish and offensive and defensive identity, get some players in, and test his system before going full steam into the SEC.
 

CowboyVenus

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#87
Do you think that the Big12 would be willing to negotiate a lower buyout?

From what I understand OU/Texas both owe the Big12 $80m in exit fees. That’s regardless of when they leave If they leave before 2025 they either have to pay in addition to the exit fees.
I don't believe having OU and Texas in the Big 12 for 2024 is worth a $160 million so I could rationalize a lower amount.
 

Midnight Toker

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Honestly it feels really inconvenient. Reports are that his representatives had been negotiating with USC for several months. It’s one thing when your coach leaves, it’s another when he’s ruminating about for months behind closed doors while he’s supposed to be coaching his team to his full ability. Would you be able to do your job fully & completely under these circumstances? Maybe, but it seems like a reasonable explanation for his meh performance last season
Lol, from Eschbach? That was radio gold on that Sunday afternoon between him & Murdoch. Like Robert Allen after Miles took the LSU job type of gold.
No, the LA times
 

TheMonkey

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Just knowing you wouldn’t have to play them every year, and go up against them in recruiting battles for the same players.
You keep bringing this up, but aTm started out-recruiting UT after they joined the SEC. So, I don’t that’s an incentive to help OU/UT leave early.
 

Midnight Toker

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Oh I know about all that. But what I’m getting at is what sort of money does the big 12 stand to gain from Oklahoma and Texas staying in the conference? If they leave early, they can negotiate a fee. If they don’t leave early there’s no fee. And yeah, the payouts will be bigger with Oklahoma and Texas for the next three years, but those payouts are still split 10 ways. But unless I’m wrong, wouldn’t the negotiated fee be split among the remaining 8 teams?

Otherwise, if they stay, then they will continue to get between 35 and $40 million a year in revenue distribution from the big 12.

And sure, there definitely is a breakeven point and I suspect that point would be before 2025 but the best financial interest of the remaining teams in the conference might also mean they will have to risk watching Oklahoma or Texas run the conference during that time. It will mean they have to recruit against them for a lot of the same players. But maybe that’s worth a few extra million dollars a year, because we all know at the end of the day the new big 12 revenues are going to Leave them behind the other major conferences. I suppose that’s the reality they are dealing with so they want to remain as relevant as possible for as long as possible which I get
“Will have to risk watching Oklahoma or Texas run the conference during that time.”

Texas hasn’t done a damn thing in 12 years… OU is a dumpster fire in a multi-year rebuild. If that’s our risk, sign me up.

Honestly, Baylor is the biggest threat for the next couple years.

It would probably be in OUs best interest to stay for 3 years. Allow BV a chance to figure out how to be a HC, establish and offensive and defensive identity, get some players in, and test his system before going full steam into the SEC.
Yes but that’s largely because they had bad coaching and they lacked for quality quarterback play. The qb situation looks better now but we’ll see. The coach knows offense and they can win games in this conference with a good qb. See OU.

If you really think Oklahoma is in a multi year rebuild then you are not going to enjoy this season very much. Especially in this day and age of transfers and like it or not, they hired themselves a pretty good staff.

Oh I am perfectly fine waiting another three years, that’s fantastic for me as a fan just as great as it would be if they were playing in the SEC. I’m happy either way personally. But i’m not sure that the big 12 benefits more in that scenario. Especially if Ou or texas wins the conference on their way out
 
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#91
So you do recognize the value of TV viewership and how it affects negotiations for TV rights. I think we all know that the new big 12 without Oklahoma and Texas will not be a power player in negotiating TV rights.

My guess is that this is the primary reason why they will not negotiate a buyout. Because having 2 giant programs in the conference means big money payouts for everyone else. It also means the big money payout ends when they leave. And really, those media right gets split 10 ways anyway so it’s not that big of a chunk of $. But, it’s good to see you recognize how valuable it is having blue bloods in your conference. The Value of replacing them with 4 middling programs might not be what you hope.

The value of annoying two programs you don’t like is pretty insignificant I think. Being petty can be expensive. I know that it’s cool to pretend like you don’t need them & don’t want them around, but you keep them around anyway, because you know who brings home the bacon. Top of that you have to deal with recruiting against them and then having to play them on the field.
We will be recruiting against them regardless....
 

CowboyHoopsPride

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#92
Not sure why we haven't just burned down the entire athletic system at OSU yet. Between this thread and the year in review, why are we wasting our time fielding teams any more?
 

Midnight Toker

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So you do recognize the value of TV viewership and how it affects negotiations for TV rights. I think we all know that the new big 12 without Oklahoma and Texas will not be a power player in negotiating TV rights.

My guess is that this is the primary reason why they will not negotiate a buyout. Because having 2 giant programs in the conference means big money payouts for everyone else. It also means the big money payout ends when they leave. And really, those media right gets split 10 ways anyway so it’s not that big of a chunk of $. But, it’s good to see you recognize how valuable it is having blue bloods in your conference. The Value of replacing them with 4 middling programs might not be what you hope.

The value of annoying two programs you don’t like is pretty insignificant I think. Being petty can be expensive. I know that it’s cool to pretend like you don’t need them & don’t want them around, but you keep them around anyway, because you know who brings home the bacon. Top of that you have to deal with recruiting against them and then having to play them on the field.
We will be recruiting against them regardless....
For some texas players sure. But OUs recruiting footprint will be more oriented in the south as they get more exposure there. They’ll be spending more time in those southeastern states. And perhaps Oklahoma recruiting in Texas may diminish slightly because they will no longer be taking visits to Baylor tcu and tech.
 

Midnight Toker

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Just knowing you wouldn’t have to play them every year, and go up against them in recruiting battles for the same players.
You keep bringing this up, but aTm started out-recruiting UT after they joined the SEC. So, I don’t that’s an incentive to help OU/UT leave early.
Well, if you let them out early, you can negotiate an exit fee. If you wait them out until 2025, you don’t get any exit fee and you just keep the same distributions.

Only question would be who retains the TV rights and if that is a part of the negotiated settlement
 

OSU79

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Well, if you let them out early, you can negotiate an exit fee. If you wait them out until 2025, you don’t get any exit fee and you just keep the same distributions.

Only question would be who retains the TV rights and if that is a part of the negotiated settlement
Still wrong. When they exit, they owe $80 million each. Even in 2025. The only thing ou/ut gain by waiting until 2025 is they get to keep thir share of TV revenue. If they leave early they forfeit those payouts to the B12.
 

Midnight Toker

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Well, if you let them out early, you can negotiate an exit fee. If you wait them out until 2025, you don’t get any exit fee and you just keep the same distributions.

Only question would be who retains the TV rights and if that is a part of the negotiated settlement
Still wrong. When they exit, they owe $80 million each. Even in 2025. The only thing ou/ut gain by waiting until 2025 is they get to keep thir share of TV revenue. If they leave early they forfeit those payouts to the B12.
At this point they really have no real incentive to leave early before 2025. Stick it out, win a couple more conference titles and leave on a high note. The exit fee will feel irrelevant because the per team sec revenue distribution will eventually be about twice as big as that of the big 12s are now. So that $ is quickly recouped
 

andylicious

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Lol, from Eschbach? That was radio gold on that Sunday afternoon between him & Murdoch. Like Robert Allen after Miles took the LSU job type of gold.
That wasn't radio gold, it was triple platinum awesomeness. The best part of that week was the explosions when anyone would ask for an explanation of how Rilley's actions were any different than the two traitors.
 

OSUCowboy787

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At this point they really have no real incentive to leave early before 2025. Stick it out, win a couple more conference titles and leave on a high note. The exit fee will feel irrelevant because the per team sec revenue distribution will eventually be about twice as big as that of the big 12s are now. So that $ is quickly recouped
lets just say its twice as big, and they are pulling in 50 million a year. it will still take years to recover since their athletic expenditures will have to double as well to 'keep up with the jones'. Not to mention ou is already in debt to their eyeballs.
 

OctaviusRexLTH

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lets just say its twice as big, and they are pulling in 50 million a year. it will still take years to recover since their athletic expenditures will have to double as well to 'keep up with the jones'. Not to mention ou is already in debt to their eyeballs.
Hooo boy, that’s gonna make those NIL recruiting battles in the snake pit that is the SEC not so fun for OU.
 

Cimarron

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Markets aren't going to matter as much going forward for the SEC and B1G... Compelling matchups are going to drive the bus in the future because that is what the networks want.
There will be a super league of about 30 universities break from the NCAA. Perhaps sooner than later.

This league will swallow up the big media dollars.