CFB Playoff #5 CFP, #5 Coaches, #5 AP

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OkstateKerr

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Jan 13, 2005
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I'd be in favor of something similar to what Joel Klatt proposed a few weeks back.

Lessen the influence of the committee - either add in a computer poll, AP, etc
12 team playoff, byes for the top 4
P5 Conference Champions, best G5 and then the wildcards (I'd propose a max of 2 teams per conference)
First round played on campus, home team determined by seeding
National Championship game played on a neutral site
Rotate the TV affiliation to make sure it remains relevant on all networks
IMO 12 teams is the wrong number. Giving 4 teams a bye is too great of an advantage. You either go 8 or 16 so every team is playing in first round. I think 8 is the right number. 5 highest ranked conference champions and 3 wildcards.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Heretofore I’ve been focusing mostly on what OSU needs to do to get in and less about what the general criteria seems to be to get in. Based on the history of the CFP final rankings combined with the Committees published criteria, below is what I believe to be the functional ranking hierarchy in terms of accomplishment realizing anything below #3 is more speculation than certainty.

1. Undefeated P5 Conference Champions
2. Undefeated P5 Independents
3. 1-loss P5 Conference Champions
4. Undefeated G5 Teams
5. 1-loss P5 Conference Runner-ups
6. 1-loss P5 teams w/o Conference Championship Appearance, and 1-loss Independents
7. 2-loss P5 Conference Runner-ups

To the extent there are 2 or more teams with the same accomplishments, comparative resumes and metrics are used to rank the teams there in.

Assuming this is correct, where does that leave us?

- An OSU win will result in no worse than a 3-seed.
- UGA may not get in with a loss
- Cincy is not guaranteed in with a win
- Notre Dame needs lots of help
- Bama and Mich are almost certainly out with a loss


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The item listed 2nd in your "where does that leave us" list is incorrect. UGA is in. Period. You know that. You feel it in your bones. You hear that on TV. Why write something so counterintuitive?
Let’s test that.

If UGA loses their conference championship they will be 12-1 without a championship and 1 win over a current Top-20 CFP team. (#20 Clemson)

Alabama 12-1 with a conference championship and 2 top 10 wins (UGA & Miss)
Michigan 12-1 with a conference championship and 3 wins over CFP Top-15 teams. (tOSU, MSU, Iowa).
OSU 12-1 conference champion with 3 wins over current Top-15 teams (2 - #9 BU, 14 OU)
Cincy 13-0 conference champ with a win over #6 ND and 21 Houston.

I think 13-0 Cincy would be placed ahead of UGA.

IMO, Conference championships really matter.
 

OkstateKerr

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Let’s test that.

If UGA loses their conference championship they will be 12-1 without a championship and 1 win over a current Top-20 CFP team. (#20 Clemson)

Alabama 12-1 with a conference championship and 2 top 10 wins (UGA & Miss)
Michigan 12-1 with a conference championship and 3 wins over CFP Top-15 teams. (tOSU, MSU, Iowa).
OSU 12-1 conference champion with 3 wins over current Top-15 teams (2 - #9 BU, 14 OU)
Cincy 13-0 conference champ with a win over #6 ND and 21 Houston.

I think 13-0 Cincy would be placed ahead of UGA.

IMO, Conference championships really matter.
But Georgia plays in the SEC so they will have a quality loss better than any of Cincy's quality wins so Georgia gets in.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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I will also add that I hate the “best” vs “most deserving” argument used for the CFP. The pundits often say a team is best based on hype and recruiting, and ignore the actual game.
This. I have no clue why it isn’t most deserving. That is who it should be. It’s not who you think is best, it’s who has earned it that year.

Unfortunate that it doesn’t work that way.


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Please define “most deserving”.


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Teams that have the most good wins, no bad losses, and wins their conference.

Georgia loses this week, they are out. If you aren’t your conference champion then how can you be a national champion? Conference championship games should be the first round of the playoffs for power 5 schools.

Notre Dame never gets in unless they go undefeated or join a conference.

Just how I think it should work, they’ll never go for it though.


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Isn’t that essentially what we have now?


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No, no it’s not.

1-loss Ohio State was selected in 2016-17 and didn’t win the Big 10. Penn State and OU both had 2 losses but won their conference and were left out.

1-loss Bama was selected in 2017-28 and didn’t win the SEC. Ohio State and USC both had 2 losses but won their conference and were left out.

1-loss Notre Dame was selected last year. OU and Oregon both had 2 losses but won their conference and were left out. Cincinnati was undefeated and won their conference and were left out. I have no problem with undefeated ND getting in but they should be out with even 1 loss since they can’t win a conference title.

Believe it or not, a 1-loss SEC runner-up Georgia is getting in this year. And there will be P5 conference champions left out. If you look at Georgia’s resume, they definitely should be out with a loss. They will have 0 big time wins, best is over 20th ranked Clemson. Either undefeated, conference champion Cincinnati or 1-loss, conference champion OSU (3 wins over Top 15 teams) will be left out for them.

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We’ll, you said “Teams that have the most good wins, no bad losses, and wins their conference.”

The committee has essentially taken all P5 conference champions, but draws the line at 1 loss and then fills the field with 1-loss non-champions.

I don’t understand why you think a 1-loss P5 champ will be left out this year. Bama, Mich and OSU are all gut-cinches at 12-1. You’re right about UGAs record, but I think they’re out with a loss.


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jnewtont

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Oct 18, 2010
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IMO, Conference championships really matter.
I agree, they (championships) do. But ... the committee will never let it happen. They will not let a team they had at #1 all the way through the CFP rankings completely drop out. They just won't. It's human nature. They would in essence be saying that they got it totally wrong, and they are not going to say that.
 
Jun 11, 2010
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We’ll, you said “Teams that have the most good wins, no bad losses, and wins their conference.”

The committee has essentially taken all P5 conference champions, but draws the line at 1 loss and then fills the field with 1-loss non-champions.

I don’t understand why you think a 1-loss P5 champ will be left out this year. Bama, Mich and OSU are all gut-cinches at 12-1. You’re right about UGAs record, but I think they’re out with a loss.


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The committee firmly believes Georgia is better (more deserving) than Oklahoma State at this point. If you think a loss to Bama in the SEC title game is enough to offset the entire body of work (in the committee's eyes), I believe you are mistaken. Georgia is in regardless. The committee is hoping for a Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, or Michigan loss with a Bama win to make their job easy. Alabama wins, and all the other favored teams hold serve, then we have the potential for breaking the system again. Every other year, the system has worked itself out in the last few weeks where we really didn't have the perfect storm. This year is playing out to show the problem with a 4 and not 8 team playoff. Think where we would be if Oregon was still in the mix as well.
 
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IMO, Conference championships really matter.
I agree, they (championships) do. But ... the committee will never let it happen. They will not let a team they had at #1 all the way through the CFP rankings completely drop out. They just won't. It's human nature. They would in essence be saying that they got it totally wrong, and they are not going to say that.
IMO, what most everyone forgets is the impact of championships. It’s a massive data point for the committee. The committee has to put UGA#1 without any championship data points. And they don’t mind penalizing teams that don’t win a championship - See 2014 TCU.
I also think the proposed new CFP model with the top-6 champions automatically qualifying will further reinforce and influence this years rankings.


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Jun 4, 2014
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I think I read an interview where the committee head implied effectively a one-loss Georgia is in. That's why it's so important that Georgia win handily over Bama to get them out. Let's say Geogia gets up on Bama; do they call off the dogs to give Bama a chance to stay in the CFP? Big money and conference prestige at stake.
Georgia needs to exercise the Bama demon. They will play till the final whistle.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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We’ll, you said “Teams that have the most good wins, no bad losses, and wins their conference.”

The committee has essentially taken all P5 conference champions, but draws the line at 1 loss and then fills the field with 1-loss non-champions.

I don’t understand why you think a 1-loss P5 champ will be left out this year. Bama, Mich and OSU are all gut-cinches at 12-1. You’re right about UGAs record, but I think they’re out with a loss.


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The committee firmly believes Georgia is better (more deserving) than Oklahoma State at this point. If you think a loss to Bama in the SEC title game is enough to offset the entire body of work (in the committee's eyes), I believe you are mistaken. Georgia is in regardless. The committee is hoping for a Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, or Michigan loss with a Bama win to make their job easy. Alabama wins, and all the other favored teams hold serve, then we have the potential for breaking the system again. Every other year, the system has worked itself out in the last few weeks where we really didn't have the perfect storm. This year is playing out to show the problem with a 4 and not 8 team playoff. Think where we would be if Oregon was still in the mix as well.
Firmly believes at this point - they have no choice. If UGA loses they MIGHT make the top-4, but they will be placed behind all 1-loss conference champs. Bet the house.

I don’t think the committee hopes for anything. They’re just 13 separate individuals tasked with ranking teams.


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Jun 11, 2010
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Firmly believes at this point - they have no choice. If UGA loses they MIGHT make the top-4, but they will be placed behind all 1-loss conference champs. Bet the house.


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Will they be placed behind all 1 loss conference champions and an undefeated G5? If they make the top 4, who gets left out? If your contention is Georgia is in regardless and it is between Cinci and Oklahoma State for the last spot, I can't argue. I just think that this is the year that an undefeated G5 team gets in since they beat Notre Dame and gave Georgia all they wanted last year.
 

CampusCowboy

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We’ll, you said “Teams that have the most good wins, no bad losses, and wins their conference.”

The committee has essentially taken all P5 conference champions, but draws the line at 1 loss and then fills the field with 1-loss non-champions.

I don’t understand why you think a 1-loss P5 champ will be left out this year. Bama, Mich and OSU are all gut-cinches at 12-1. You’re right about UGAs record, but I think they’re out with a loss.


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The committee firmly believes Georgia is better (more deserving) than Oklahoma State at this point. If you think a loss to Bama in the SEC title game is enough to offset the entire body of work (in the committee's eyes), I believe you are mistaken. Georgia is in regardless. The committee is hoping for a Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, or Michigan loss with a Bama win to make their job easy. Alabama wins, and all the other favored teams hold serve, then we have the potential for breaking the system again. Every other year, the system has worked itself out in the last few weeks where we really didn't have the perfect storm. This year is playing out to show the problem with a 4 and not 8 team playoff. Think where we would be if Oregon was still in the mix as well.
Firmly believes at this point - they have no choice. If UGA loses they MIGHT make the top-4, but they will be placed behind all 1-loss conference champs. Bet the house.

I don’t think the committee hopes for anything. They’re just 13 separate individuals tasked with ranking teams.


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I wish you were right, it makes a ton of sense that Georgia would be out. Unfortunately, there is no chance Georgia is left out. All the model have them at 99% chance to make it in. With a loss, they are like 97% to get in. If Bama beats Georgia and everything else is chalk, then the ranking will look like this…

1. Bama
2. Michigan
3. Georgia
4. OSU or Cincinnati

Only way I see it going any different is if Georgia loses by about 30 and both OSU and Cincinnati beat down their opponents. This the other 3% change.

I would definitely not bet the house that Georgia is out.


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Aug 13, 2005
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We are lucky to have a 11 am kickoff so we can take care of our business early and beat Baylor while other games are at 3 or 7 pm. I think Cincinnati may get beat by Houston, Georgia beat by BAMA, and Michigan beat by Iowa to cause chaos resulting in:
1. BAMA
2. OKState
3. UGA
4. tOSU

I would love to beat BAMA in the National Championship game. We want BAMA!
 
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Sep 29, 2011
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Firmly believes at this point - they have no choice. If UGA loses they MIGHT make the top-4, but they will be placed behind all 1-loss conference champs. Bet the house.


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Will they be placed behind all 1 loss conference champions and an undefeated G5? If they make the top 4, who gets left out? If your contention is Georgia is in regardless and it is between Cinci and Oklahoma State for the last spot, I can't argue. I just think that this is the year that an undefeated G5 team gets in since they beat Notre Dame and gave Georgia all they wanted last year.
IMO, If Bama, Mich, OSU, and Cincy win, that’s your final 4. I think it’s possible UGA could slip in above Cincy at number 4 because we really don’t know how the committee views an undefeated G5 vs a 1-loss P5 non-champ.


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Sep 29, 2011
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We’ll, you said “Teams that have the most good wins, no bad losses, and wins their conference.”

The committee has essentially taken all P5 conference champions, but draws the line at 1 loss and then fills the field with 1-loss non-champions.

I don’t understand why you think a 1-loss P5 champ will be left out this year. Bama, Mich and OSU are all gut-cinches at 12-1. You’re right about UGAs record, but I think they’re out with a loss.


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The committee firmly believes Georgia is better (more deserving) than Oklahoma State at this point. If you think a loss to Bama in the SEC title game is enough to offset the entire body of work (in the committee's eyes), I believe you are mistaken. Georgia is in regardless. The committee is hoping for a Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, or Michigan loss with a Bama win to make their job easy. Alabama wins, and all the other favored teams hold serve, then we have the potential for breaking the system again. Every other year, the system has worked itself out in the last few weeks where we really didn't have the perfect storm. This year is playing out to show the problem with a 4 and not 8 team playoff. Think where we would be if Oregon was still in the mix as well.
Firmly believes at this point - they have no choice. If UGA loses they MIGHT make the top-4, but they will be placed behind all 1-loss conference champs. Bet the house.

I don’t think the committee hopes for anything. They’re just 13 separate individuals tasked with ranking teams.


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I wish you were right, it makes a ton of sense that Georgia would be out. Unfortunately, there is no chance Georgia is left out. All the model have them at 99% chance to make it in. With a loss, they are like 97% to get in. If Bama beats Georgia and everything else is chalk, then the ranking will look like this…

1. Bama
2. Michigan
3. Georgia
4. OSU or Cincinnati

Only way I see it going any different is if Georgia loses by about 30 and both OSU and Cincinnati beat down their opponents. This the other 3% change.

I would definitely not bet the house that Georgia is out.


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That wasn’t the “bet the house” scenario. I said if UGA loses, they will be ranked below all 1-loss P5 champs, bet the house.


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We are lucky to have a 11 am kickoff so we can take care of our business early and beat Baylor while other games are at 3 or 7 pm. I think Cincinnati may get beat by Houston, Georgia beat by BAMA, and Michigan beat by Iowa to cause chaos resulting in:
1. BAMA
2. OKState
3. UGA
4. ND

I would love to beat BAMA in the National Championship game. We want BAMA!
In your scenario I think ND is still out and Ohio State is in. No way the Big 10 gets left out. The would write off Michigan as a rivalry game loss on the road in bad weather conditions and ND has lost their coach.
 
Aug 13, 2005
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In your scenario I think ND is still out and Ohio State is in. No way the Big 10 gets left out. The would write off Michigan as a rivalry game loss on the road in bad weather conditions and ND has lost their coach.
Oh… I forgot about Ohio State. Your right they would jump ND and Cincy. I will change my prediction.. get ready for chaos!
 
Aug 31, 2004
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IMO 12 teams is the wrong number. Giving 4 teams a bye is too great of an advantage. You either go 8 or 16 so every team is playing in first round. I think 8 is the right number. 5 highest ranked conference champions and 3 wildcards.
I agree. Obviously, there aren't 12 or more teams worthy of consideration. 8 is the right number. This year proves that.
 
Dec 2, 2008
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A show I listen to every day had Dave Bartoo from CFB Matrix on yesterday. The dude is a genius when it comes to the CFBP.
The interview with Dave starts at the 1:51:16 mark. He specifically gets asked about the Pokes around the 1:57:40 mark
https://youtu.be/RWWFH8sbyMs
 
Sep 29, 2011
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I agree. Obviously, there aren't 12 or more teams worthy of consideration. 8 is the right number. This year proves that.
Agree. 8 is a wide enough net to know that somewhere in there you have the best team.
Was reading an article about the results and comments on the process to rework the CFP. Apparently Sankey w/SEC basically has taken the position that it either stays at 4, or expands to 12. Nothing in between. Kinda makes sense from an SEC point. At 4 they are almost guaranteed a 1/4 share. At 12 with 6 at-large bids, they’re almost guaranteed a 1/4 share. But at 8 with only 2 at-large bids, the SECs chances of getting a 1/4 share decreases.


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