To follow up,. I asked my friend the Purdue epidemiologist and this is what she said:
- There is an element of seasonality to it but not truly seasonal.
- Meaning we would expect more cases in winter but it won’t go away in spring/summer.
- It’s not like the flu where it nearly fades out, but it does seem to surge in winter months.
- The surge really is seasonal- but of course exacerbated by the holidays.
- (Which prompted me to ask about the holidays being a confounder, and her response) Contact tracing allows us to sort it out.
So, I give it up to you, you scooped me on this one. I need to start reading her blog again.