well let me clarify why I won't trust them ever again...because it will be two elections in a row where they were wrong...and yes I understand electors, but I believe that out of the top 6 battleground states in 2016 where Hillary was shown to lead, Trump won 5 of them on election night.
I believe those the biggest battleground states were Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, NC, and Arizona.
he won PA by less than 50k - less than 1%
he won michigan by ~11k- 0.2%
he won Wisconsin by ~23k- less than 1%
he won florida by about 200k- 1.2%
he won NC by around 180k- 3.7%
he won AZ by around 90k 3.5%
Most of these are razor thin margins and could easily go either way. clinton campaigned poorly and didnt have a lot of appeal outside the most heavily populated counties. Biden isnt a lot better but he's not as bad and unpopular in the party as she was.
I think biden gets a few states that obama took that clinton couldnt making this race very tight. i am not sure trump can take any states that clinton won last time by more than 1%. Interestingly, looking at the numbers, there really are only a few states which either candidate didnt win by at least 2.5%
List of states won by less than 2.5%, which maybe could be battleground states:
Florida, Michigan, Nevada, NH, PA
I use rasmussen more than any other poll so i'll go with that here. Of those Biden polls best in PA and FL (not counting NH). It's going to be interesting