-
You are viewing Orangepower as a Guest. To start new threads, reply to posts, or participate in polls or contests - you must register. Registration is free and easy. Click Here to register.
Technically, I brought up the scenario, but I didn't really analyze how the tiebreaker would work. I think you're right, though.
Basically, unless we beat OU, we'll need OU to beat ISU. If ISU wins instead, either a 3-way tie* for #2 will result (ISU, OSU, Baylor, all of which will have 1 loss against each other), which ISU will win after Baylor is eliminated by point differential, or a 4 way tie will result, in which ISU and Baylor would get in since they'd each have only 1 loss against the tied teams, while OSU and OU would have 2. Both scenarios are bad for us.
*If Baylor loses to OU but ISU doesn't, change this to 2-way tie. The result is still the same for us, though, since head-to-head always decides 2-way ties.
Basically, unless we beat OU, we'll need OU to beat ISU. If ISU wins instead, either a 3-way tie* for #2 will result (ISU, OSU, Baylor, all of which will have 1 loss against each other), which ISU will win after Baylor is eliminated by point differential, or a 4 way tie will result, in which ISU and Baylor would get in since they'd each have only 1 loss against the tied teams, while OSU and OU would have 2. Both scenarios are bad for us.
*If Baylor loses to OU but ISU doesn't, change this to 2-way tie. The result is still the same for us, though, since head-to-head always decides 2-way ties.
Last edited:
-
1
- Show all
Good point. You're right...Baylor and ISU finishing with 2 losses guarantees that OU has at least 2 losses as well.
OU is in a tougher spot than its fans may realize, playing against the three best teams in the conference to end the season. In fact, OU can only afford to lose 1 of their next 3 games, or they're out, regardless of who the losses occur against. The only OU 2-losses scenario that's bad for OSU is the 4-way tie thing we've been talking about. This all assumes none of the conference top 4 teams lose to a team they have no business losing to.
But for the OU finishing 6-3 scenario (3-way tie for 1st place), the result of any tiebreaker between just ISU, OSU, and Baylor was set in stone two weeks ago when we lost to ISU. A 3-way tie for first place would leave Baylor out due to point differential since all three teams would have the same record against each other. But that's all pretty unlikely...OU losing out, including to us, and yet we still get a second loss from either TCU or TT that we have no business losing to.
OU is in a tougher spot than its fans may realize, playing against the three best teams in the conference to end the season. In fact, OU can only afford to lose 1 of their next 3 games, or they're out, regardless of who the losses occur against. The only OU 2-losses scenario that's bad for OSU is the 4-way tie thing we've been talking about. This all assumes none of the conference top 4 teams lose to a team they have no business losing to.
But for the OU finishing 6-3 scenario (3-way tie for 1st place), the result of any tiebreaker between just ISU, OSU, and Baylor was set in stone two weeks ago when we lost to ISU. A 3-way tie for first place would leave Baylor out due to point differential since all three teams would have the same record against each other. But that's all pretty unlikely...OU losing out, including to us, and yet we still get a second loss from either TCU or TT that we have no business losing to.
Last edited:
What's sad is the non-con games are not considered for the Big 12 championship, but they will for the NC playoff spots. BU or ISU could be the Big 12 champ with 3 losses, and neither would be in the running for one of the 4 playoff spots. I would doubt either would make it with 2 losses. And frankly same for us.
Oklahoma State isnt losing again, at least not until you get to the CFP.
WVU's defense isnt good, but the Cowboy defense is elite.
OU wont beat you this year, not in Stillwater.
You should hope you dont see ISU again, because they actually have an offense that can move the ball on you with Purdy, Koler, and Haskins.
WVU's defense isnt good, but the Cowboy defense is elite.
OU wont beat you this year, not in Stillwater.
You should hope you dont see ISU again, because they actually have an offense that can move the ball on you with Purdy, Koler, and Haskins.
-
1
- Show all
If there’s a 3-way tie for first at 7-2 with OSU, BU, and ISU, the tiebreaker will go to the record against the 4th place team, then 5th, etc. until one of the 3 is eliminated. Then the 2 remaining teams go to CCG. Since our 2nd loss would be to TCU or TT, we’ll want TT or TCU to finish behind WVU (ISUs loss) or TCU (BUs loss). Since TT, WVU and TCU are all 2-4 now, it’s too hard to figure the probable outcome.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This doesn't model tiebreakers but I like the Five Thirty Eight playoff simulator.
2021 College Football Predictions | FiveThirtyEight
If Georgia and OSU both win out they predict a 99% chance OSU makes the CFP.
2021 College Football Predictions | FiveThirtyEight
If Georgia and OSU both win out they predict a 99% chance OSU makes the CFP.
-
2
- Show all
Dam u , Gumby!
I was sitting here drinking coffee, reading the message board, basking in the afterglow of one the most dominate Poke defense games I’ve seen in my 60 years of bleeding Orange...........
And WHAM! You painted the playoff scenario. And whether we will admit it out loud, and despite all the “we win out” talk, most of us got the Bedlam Spectre lurking in the dark orange recesses of our cranium. And every now and then until then, we’ll get a whiff of the stink of Bedlam Record and “it’s just another game” bs. And we will throw up just a little in our mouth thinking about it. Oh, the humanity.......
Press On
-
1
- Show all
No doubt!
Up to this point I’ve refused to even consider the heretofore very remote possibility of making the CFP. But now that there’s at least a definable (even if it’s unlikely) path to the CFP, I’m now secretly hoping for other B12 results that would bolster our resume. OSU winning out and OU winning all but 2 OSU games seems like the best path. But as you said, rooting for OU against BU and ISU is tough.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Up to this point I’ve refused to even consider the heretofore very remote possibility of making the CFP. But now that there’s at least a definable (even if it’s unlikely) path to the CFP, I’m now secretly hoping for other B12 results that would bolster our resume. OSU winning out and OU winning all but 2 OSU games seems like the best path. But as you said, rooting for OU against BU and ISU is tough.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
1
- Show all
At this point, there is a direct line of sight to the CFP for the Pokes with 4 games to play…including the conference championship game. However, I think it is a given that we need to win out and OU needs to win up to Bedlam. Then we would obviously have to win Bedlam and then the conference championship game against OU…again.
Even then, if you factor in the corrupt NCAA selection committee and their “fluid” selection criteria, they could very well change the narrative to “since OSU beat OU twice in the same year, it has to be a down year in the Big 12. Hope not…but we’ve seen this script before.
Anyway, first things first….WIN OUT!!! GO POKES!!!
Even then, if you factor in the corrupt NCAA selection committee and their “fluid” selection criteria, they could very well change the narrative to “since OSU beat OU twice in the same year, it has to be a down year in the Big 12. Hope not…but we’ve seen this script before.
Anyway, first things first….WIN OUT!!! GO POKES!!!
-
1
- Show all
