Ray Kurzweil

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Anaranjado

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#1
Anybody know anything about this guy? I just started reading about him and some of the things i read, blew my mind. Apparently, he predicts technology before we are capable of producing it and he is very big on singularity. some of this stuff is a little outrageous and def. out there, but it seems like he's been right about most things so idk what to think. lol.

colbert show video:
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/381488/april-12-2011/ray-kurzweil

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil
 

ksupoke

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#2
He is frequently a topic here in the silicon valley and in some circles he is a demigod and yes many of his predictions have been correct. BUT, similar to a Nostradamus, many of his predictions have not panned out you just don't hear as much about those. In fact there was a well put together read by a blogger from Forbes, who was subsequently criticized for daring to write such blasphemy (Alex Knap - not sure of the spelling), where he went through Mr Kurzweil's 2009 predictions and showed them to be mostly inaccurate. It was not highly publicized but it was honest. If I can find the link I will post it for you. Having said this, his vision is amazing.
 

ksupoke

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#3
Anybody know anything about this guy? I just started reading about him and some of the things i read, blew my mind. Apparently, he predicts technology before we are capable of producing it and he is very big on singularity. some of this stuff is a little outrageous and def. out there, but it seems like he's been right about most things so idk what to think. lol.

colbert show video:
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/381488/april-12-2011/ray-kurzweil

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil
And here you go

http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkna...-predictions-for-2009-were-mostly-inaccurate/
 

ksupoke

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#5
I just read it and no I had not seen it before, thanks for the link.
As I said, I think his vision is amazing, I remember when the blog was originally posted the author was excoriated by many for having the temerity to challenge Kurzweil's predictions, based on what I read it may have been Ray himself who was writing the replies:) .

I can also tell you I attended a technology conference at Stanford back in the late 90's where many of these exact same predictions were made by many others. While not to any way taking away from him, I would argue that if you spent some time looking at technology today you could make somewhat accurate predictions on where technology will be in 10 yrs as well, maybe not with the specificity he does but still close.

There was an article I read at least 15 yrs ago (it will be harder to find but I will try) where the author took sci fi programs and then looked at where we are now. Shockingly hollywood was pretty darn close.

Mr Kurzweil is certainly an expert technologist, inventor, and author, but he is also a world class marketeer;).
 

OSU Sig

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#6
Back in the 80's I seem to remember Xerox purchased some of his technology rights or one of his products. Xerox was famous for having technology that It couldn't seem to get figured out how to market it correctly. PARC was/is one of the most well respected labs in the world and is where the mouse was invented. That was a Xerox technology.
We had great products but let a lot of game changers get away.
 

Anaranjado

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#7
I just read it and no I had not seen it before, thanks for the link.
As I said, I think his vision is amazing, I remember when the blog was originally posted the author was excoriated by many for having the temerity to challenge Kurzweil's predictions, based on what I read it may have been Ray himself who was writing the replies:) .

I can also tell you I attended a technology conference at Stanford back in the late 90's where many of these exact same predictions were made by many others. While not to any way taking away from him, I would argue that if you spent some time looking at technology today you could make somewhat accurate predictions on where technology will be in 10 yrs as well, maybe not with the specificity he does but still close.

There was an article I read at least 15 yrs ago (it will be harder to find but I will try) where the author took sci fi programs and then looked at where we are now. Shockingly hollywood was pretty darn close.

Mr Kurzweil is certainly an expert technologist, inventor, and author, but he is also a world class marketeer;).

hey, if i had visions of the future, i'd market the hell out of them. haha. i'm pretty sure that it was kurzweil himself replying to the article. it was interesting to see his comments. I def. do not think kurzweil is alone in predicting future technology and gaining patents for them, but he seems to stick out from the rest. i watched a documentary about him called the "transcendent man". it was a pretty good watch. apparently, ol ray takes about 50 pills a day, most not approved by FDA, in order to help him live "forever". a little crazy, but the part where he really lost me....he is trying to bring his dad back from the dead.
 

State

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#8
That's some pretty crazy stuff. I think/hope? his timeline is overly ambitious. I mean, he's talking about the entire population of Earth- 6-9 billion people being transformed in mine and most assuredly my kids lifetime. While the technology may be available for much of his predictions, I think scale is a limiting factor.
 

ksupoke

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#10
Back in the 80's I seem to remember Xerox purchased some of his technology rights or one of his products. Xerox was famous for having technology that It couldn't seem to get figured out how to market it correctly. PARC was/is one of the most well respected labs in the world and is where the mouse was invented. That was a Xerox technology.
We had great products but let a lot of game changers get away.
One of the great injustices of the technology revolution is the impact that both Kodak and Xerox had on it, in particular PARC. Most don't realize that almost every 'smart' device you have had its inception at PARC. Sig I am not sure if this pdf will attach but this is for you:), its over 10 yrs old but it still tells the story very well.
 

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ksupoke

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#11
One of the great injustices of the technology revolution is the impact that both Kodak and Xerox had (edit) and the lack of recognition they have received for their efforts and results, in particular PARC. Most don't realize that almost every 'smart' device you have had its inception at PARC. Sig I am not sure if this pdf will attach but this is for you:), its over 10 yrs old but it still tells the story very well.
 

OSU Sig

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#12
Thanks for that. It brings back a flood of memories from my tenure at the Big X. Great products and greater people. It's too bad the company ended up bowing at the alter of political correctness.