The Market Thread

[steross]

This is a really good deal on the WSJ or WSJ/Barrons/Marketwatch if anyone is interested (just info, I make nothing):

https://store.wsj.com/shop/us/us/ws...&Cp5dKJWb=Cp5dKJWb&APCc9OU1=APCc9OU1#cxrecs_s

 

[OSUCowboy787]

I would assume rental communities are on the rise. Corporations see homes as a good investment. Millennials aren’t as bent on ownership as previous generations.

Millennial here and this is absolutely false, at least from every millennial i know. I'm also assuming you might mean Gen Z as Millennials are in a the 26-41 age range these days and I do not know a single one of 'us' who would prefer to rent, especially since most of us have families and kids in school etc.

 

[Boomer.....]

Slow travel tax shelter...The plan...Tell me what is wrong with this...if anything?

After building 70% equity in a home, sell it. Don't replace it. no tax on gain
Sell paid off cars at their highest prices in history for cars. Don't replace them. no tax on gain
Then one would only need insurance for healthcare and buy travel health care insurance for about 1/2 rates or qualify for very low-cost Obama care due to no taxable income for a few years (Real estate equity cash).
Less than $500K capital gain...so no taxes on former personal residence sale? even if used to finance life abroad?
Live in month long airbnb's and vbro's to get good rates mostly in Europe and also Asia and other places move enough to be able to re-enter Europe every 180 days stay to avoid needing a visa anywhere (just passport travel) Stay mostly out of usa except for a few months a year to visit family. Start a couple on-line business if wanted.

Possible? Would one get earned income tax credit legally with this plan? possible, or does semi high net worth disqualify a person?
maintain US citizenship but pay virtually no taxes until one gets to 62.5 and can draw SS?
Leave 401K's and stock investments completely alone for five years in order to re-enter US housing market when SS age is reached.

Would this work? Why or why not?

Not too far off.

A couple in their 50s live permanently on a cruise ship because it's cheaper than a mortgage

 

[PJ-OSU]

Not too far off.

A couple in their 50s live permanently on a cruise ship because it's cheaper than a mortgage

 

[kaboy42]

Sell paid off cars at their highest prices in history for cars. Don't replace them. no tax on gain

I have a gearhead buddy who got a brand new Bronco in on order (a few months back), drove it straight from the dealership to CarMax, and pocketed $14k.

He now has orders in for another Bronco Badlands, a Bronco Raptor, and the new electric F-150 (all supposedly at MSRP)... all to just take delivery and immediately flip. Because of his job, he has connections with a number of dealerships, we will see if he actually gets the orders filled and if the dealers honor the agreed upon pricing.

BUT, what's the tax implications of something like this???

I wouldn't have even thought about trying something like this until he mentioned it. Modern-day horse trading... In an absolutely stupidinsaneinflated market.

 

[Coolfogg]

I have a gearhead buddy who got a brand new Bronco in on order (a few months back), drove it straight from the dealership to CarMax, and pocketed $14k.

He now has orders in for another Bronco Badlands, a Bronco Raptor, and the new electric F-150 (all supposedly at MSRP)... all to just take delivery and immediately flip. Because of his job, he has connections with a number of dealerships, we will see if he actually gets the orders filled and if the dealers honor the agreed upon pricing.

BUT, what's the tax implications of something like this???

I wouldn't have even thought about trying something like this until he mentioned it. Modern-day horse trading... In an absolutely stupidinsaneinflated market.

TT&L + plus capital gains if reported? I think the market is about to flip a little. With the higher interest rates and recession fears. Will people hold onto what cash they have in fear?

 

[steross]

Does anyone else feel like the Fed has really screwed the pooch on this? When inflation started really ramping up, instead of taking even the mildest actions they basically said, “ Don’t worry, this is transient. Keep on partying!”
Then, only after it became painfully obvious that it wasn’t transient they are acting. And, again, instead of a cautious approach they are saying, “Ok, yep, this is real inflation after all so we don’t give a crap if we kill the entire economy, we are gonna beat inflation.”

Seems a more measured approach on both ends would have improved our chances to minimize the damage.

 

[OSUCowboy787]

Does anyone else feel like the Fed has really screwed the pooch on this? When inflation started really ramping up, instead of taking even the mildest actions they basically said, “ Don’t worry, this is transient. Keep on partying!”
Then, only after it became painfully obvious that it wasn’t transient they are acting. And, again, instead of a cautious approach they are saying, “Ok, yep, this is real inflation after all so we don’t give a crap if we kill the entire economy, we are gonna beat inflation.”

Seems a more measured approach on both ends would have improved our chances to minimize the damage.

Just hope we don't get to the 15+% interest rates of the 80s

 

[teachum]

Does anyone else feel like the Fed has really screwed the pooch on this? When inflation started really ramping up, instead of taking even the mildest actions they basically said, “ Don’t worry, this is transient. Keep on partying!”
Then, only after it became painfully obvious that it wasn’t transient they are acting. And, again, instead of a cautious approach they are saying, “Ok, yep, this is real inflation after all so we don’t give a crap if we kill the entire economy, we are gonna beat inflation.”

Seems a more measured approach on both ends would have improved our chances to minimize the damage.

But isn't "measured" exactly what we got?? Seems you were arguing for a more aggressive approach, at least on the back end here. I think the retail numbers we're seeing are going to be the start of taming this inflation issue, and I"d prefer to see the FED stay on track doing exactly what they have been saying they're going to do.

 

[PJ-OSU]

But isn't "measured" exactly what we got?? Seems you were arguing for a more aggressive approach, at least on the back end here. I think the retail numbers we're seeing are going to be the start of taming this inflation issue, and I"d prefer to see the FED stay on track doing exactly what they have been saying they're going to do.

If I had to guess, he meant exactly what I have chatted with friends about for a while. Specifically, this measured approach they are currently on could have, and probably should have, happened earlier in the process. Reasonable raising of the interest rates earlier likely could have resulted in higher rates than we currently have. However, in my opinion, it would have helped dampen the overall economic damage we are seeing and will likely continue to see until things are under control.

 

[teachum]

If I had to guess, he meant exactly what I have chatted with friends about for a while. Specifically, this measured aproach they are currently on could have, and probably should have, happened earlier in the process. Reasonable raising of the interest rates earlier likely could have resulted in higher rates than we currently have. However, in my opinion, it would have helped dampen the overall economic damage we are seeing and will likely conintue to see until things are under control.

I don't think there is any question they started too late, and moreover, were still buying bonds into this year. However, you can't turn back the clock, so I still hope at this point, they stick to the regular .5 rate increases.

 

[kaboy42]

TT&L + plus capital gains if reported? I think the market is about to flip a little. With the higher interest rates and recession fears. Will people hold onto what cash they have in fear?

Will they? I've had a freaking bloated savings account for almost 2 solid years now. I'm already doing it. I had to buy a house because I lost a job due to covid and had to move to Houston for a new job. I bought a new laptop just to apply for new jobs. AND I just recently spent a few K's on a trip to Mexico to celebrate my 50th on a beach. But other than that, I haven't spent or invested crap (other than my 401k) for 2-3 years now. Seriously, I've got enough saved I could pay cash for a brand new Cadillac Escalade.

BUT I refuse to pay MSRP (or higher) for even a base model Silverado. NOT GONNA DO IT. I'll drive my current rig until the wheels fall off. I'll even effing LSx swap it and dump thousands into it... WAY before I pay MSRP for a vehicle. AND I sure as hell ain't buying anything used right now either. Hell, my current truck is worth more now than what I paid for it in 2017... and I've put 80k miles on the odometer.

Gawd I hope you're right. Something needs to pop this massive bubble.

*Been bleeding money just recently though as a lot of current costs have increased substantially on just routine stuff... like my storage unit. Went from $155/mo to $240, overnight. No explanation other than "market adjustment".

 

[steross]

I don't think there is any question they started too late, and moreover, were still buying bonds into this year. However, you can't turn back the clock, so I still hope at this point, they stick to the regular .5 rate increases.

You can’t turn back the clock but you certainly can discuss past mistakes. I wrote “screwed the pooch” not “will screw the pooch.”

These people are gazillionaires with access to far more data than any of us. Virtually nobody was agreeing with their assessment that inflation was going to just be for sure transient.

i hope if I ever have a malpractice case, you are on the jury. You can say, yeah, he shouldn’t have told them the raging pneumonia was just a short flu but we can’t turn back the clock so lets just hope the antibiotics work now…….

 

[Rack]

Not too far off.

A couple in their 50s live permanently on a cruise ship because it's cheaper than a mortgage

This is pretty darn close to our plan for sometime next year except I'm not keeping a house to maintain and pay taxes and insurance on in the states. Sell it with no capital gains tax because under the limit, sell the cars and house at highest values of all time, sell all the stuff...get out of dodge...pay very little to no us taxes...score earned income tax credit? send final kid to college with assistance? Live off proceeds of CD's and the principle of them...still invest some each year...teach people on line how to do the same... and don't spend taxable assets until retirement. Wife will teach on line...I will plan next location. But likely not on a cruise ship, not a big cruiser except when we finally do Antarctica. I'm excited about it, first time in a long time. Just got to figure out what to do with our wonderful, but very loud dog. Btw, a person can make up to 100K or so a year as a digital nomad tax free as long as they aren't in the states, I believe, over 30 days or so a year. Additionally a person can move to Puerto Rico and live nearly tax free forever due to a government program encouraging development after the hurricane.

 

[Rack]

Will they? I've had a freaking bloated savings account for almost 2 solid years now. I'm already doing it. I had to buy a house because I lost a job due to covid and had to move to Houston for a new job. I bought a new laptop just to apply for new jobs. AND I just recently spent a few K's on a trip to Mexico to celebrate my 50th on a beach. But other than that, I haven't spent or invested crap (other than my 401k) for 2-3 years now. Seriously, I've got enough saved I could pay cash for a brand new Cadillac Escalade.

BUT I refuse to pay MSRP (or higher) for even a base model Silverado. NOT GONNA DO IT. I'll drive my current rig until the wheels fall off. I'll even effing LSx swap it and dump thousands into it... WAY before I pay MSRP for a vehicle. AND I sure as hell ain't buying anything used right now either. Hell, my current truck is worth more now than what I paid for it in 2017... and I've put 80k miles on the odometer.

Gawd I hope you're right. Something needs to pop this massive bubble.

*Been bleeding money just recently though as a lot of current costs have increased substantially on just routine stuff... like my storage unit. Went from $155/mo to $240, overnight. No explanation other than "market adjustment".

Advice you didn't ask for...sell your stuff and stop paying to store it and insure it, if you want it rent it, go on more trips, and good on you for NOT buying an Escalade...unless you are a big time car guy...why would you? Consumerism, excessive taxes, and insurance cost, in the US is what I'm about to escape...either that or stay trapped in a rat race and politically dark place that robs my spirit blind and leaves me spent...I'm done...done and ready to really live.

 

[jobob85]

Does anyone else feel like the Fed has really screwed the pooch on this? When inflation started really ramping up, instead of taking even the mildest actions they basically said, “ Don’t worry, this is transient. Keep on partying!”
Then, only after it became painfully obvious that it wasn’t transient they are acting. And, again, instead of a cautious approach they are saying, “Ok, yep, this is real inflation after all so we don’t give a crap if we kill the entire economy, we are gonna beat inflation.”

Seems a more measured approach on both ends would have improved our chances to minimize the damage.

The fed fund rate has been wrong since the beginning of Obama’s second term.

 

[jobob85]

I have a gearhead buddy who got a brand new Bronco in on order (a few months back), drove it straight from the dealership to CarMax, and pocketed $14k.

He now has orders in for another Bronco Badlands, a Bronco Raptor, and the new electric F-150 (all supposedly at MSRP)... all to just take delivery and immediately flip. Because of his job, he has connections with a number of dealerships, we will see if he actually gets the orders filled and if the dealers honor the agreed upon pricing.

BUT, what's the tax implications of something like this???

I wouldn't have even thought about trying something like this until he mentioned it. Modern-day horse trading... In an absolutely stupidinsaneinflated market.

He should run it through a self employed business ( schedule C on tax return) book expenses and fund a sep-ira.

 

[Pokit N]

Does anyone else feel like the Fed has really screwed the pooch on this? When inflation started really ramping up, instead of taking even the mildest actions they basically said, “ Don’t worry, this is transient. Keep on partying!”
Then, only after it became painfully obvious that it wasn’t transient they are acting. And, again, instead of a cautious approach they are saying, “Ok, yep, this is real inflation after all so we don’t give a crap if we kill the entire economy, we are gonna beat inflation.”

Seems a more measured approach on both ends would have improved our chances to minimize the damage.

1 billion percent this.

 

[teachum]

You can’t turn back the clock but you certainly can discuss past mistakes. I wrote “screwed the pooch” not “will screw the pooch.”

These people are gazillionaires with access to far more data than any of us. Virtually nobody was agreeing with their assessment that inflation was going to just be for sure transient.

i hope if I ever have a malpractice case, you are on the jury. You can say, yeah, he shouldn’t have told them the raging pneumonia was just a short flu but we can’t turn back the clock so lets just hope the antibiotics work now…….

I never said it wasn't a mistake, but I'm also saying that I think an overly aggressive rate increase might kill your hypothetical patient. Let's see what happens when they start pushing those bonds they've been stockpiling for the last several years back onto the market.

 

[steross]

I never said it wasn't a mistake, but I'm also saying that I think an overly aggressive rate increase might kill your hypothetical patient. Let's see what happens when they start pushing those bonds they've been stockpiling for the last several years back onto the market.

I feel like you are responding to what you want my post to have said not what it actually said.