Covid-19

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RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
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Deaths per million pop
Sweden 548
United States 418
New York City 1930

Populations
United States 330 million
Sweden 10 million
New York City 8.4 million

Population densities
New York City 27,000 per sq mile
United States 92.9 per sq mile
Sweden 64 per sq mile

Comparisons with Sweden have always been apples and oranges. And no, herd immunity is NOT and has never been allowing a pathogen to run through a population unchecked killing whomever it might kill, until it has saturated a population and there are no high risk people left to die. Ever. It didn't work during the Black Death, and didn't work during the 1918 Spanish Flu. It's foolish.
You are stretching to make your point. New York state’s population density is about 420/m. Stockholm is about 9.2k/m. You compared a city to an entire country. And Sweden is dominated with two population centers.
We are about to cancel college football season. But that sand sure feels nice and safe and warm around your ears, doesn't it.

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Boomer.....

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7/13/20

510 new cases
2 new deaths (0 occurred within the past 24-hours) 2 - 65+
330 newly recovered
499 currently hospitalized
199 ICU beds available (21%)
4.901% positive test rate
The dreaded Tuesday spike

7/14/20

993 new cases
4 new deaths (0 occurred within the past 24-hours) 1 - 18-35; 1 - 50-64; 2 - 65+
820 newly recovered
546 currently hospitalized
197 ICU beds available (20%)
234 Covid-19 patients in ICU
4.887% positive test rate
 
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Deere Poke

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Pretty much everything you say here is factually incorrect. I'll just refer you to what my epidemiologist friend posted yesterday (posted below).

Ah, calling me a "far lefty" when in reality I'm anything but. I've never voted anything but Republican in my entire life, and fiscally most Republicans look like RINOs to me. Your insult falls flat.

"Keeping the economy shut down will end up killing far more people but muh the virus."

As to that assertion, the burden of proof is on you. So prove it.

If we don't stop the spread of the virus the economy is going to shut down again, whether we like it or not.

COVID-19: Monday July 13th
K-12 schools - reopening, what you need to know and what you need to ask.

Globally we hit 13 million cases over the weekend which means globally we added 1 million cases in 4 days. That is 1 day faster than the last million. The US also set a new record on Friday with 71k new cases in a single day.

Let's talk about K-12 schools reopening. (we will do colleges another day this week). There is a lot we could discuss but who wants to read a novel? Instead I am going to focus on just a few key points, but I am happy to answer any questions you may have or provide resources as needed. I too have children so I understand the angst this situation can cause.

Remember, this is all about recognizing risk and how to mitigate it. So I want to focus on practical things you can do to get the information you need and feel informed to make a decision for your family. I also want to say that there are a lot of unknowns here and this is not going to be a one size fits all situation. Prevention plans must be specific to the school system and even to the individual school. The CDC published a guide for schools to know if it was safe to reopen and then guidance for how to do that.

However, it is just guidance, to guide each school through what to consider and ways to address risks. It has to be tailored to each situation and it is not regulation. That is how these things work.

While there is much that is unknown, we do know that children (under 16) seem to be less likely to develop severe COVID-19 than adults. They also seem to be less likely to spread it. How many children exactly have gotten it we can't know because right now many children are considerably less social than they were before the outbreak (i.e. they are staying home) and many states aren't testing children at all unless they end up hospitalized. So we don't have any idea how many children have gotten it. This means current infection rate numbers for children tell us very little.

We know that less children end up hospitalized which means children tend to have less severe cases. We also know that school is an essential service and not attending school has significant negative outcomes for many children. Some things we have seen include: increased mental health issues, increased child abuse, increased molestation, increased hunger, increased achievement gap, loss of learning, decreased access to counseling, decreased access to social programs, healthy meals etc. The reality of this situation is there are negative consequences either way. We are choosing between two bad options. More than likely, schools will open so what can we do to make sure that is done safely?

Information is vital. I have seen reports from other countries that they reopened without issues. This is true. But there have also been countries that have not - Israel and Australia for example. How well this goes depends on how well each school does it. We also need to remember that teachers and staff are a very big part of this equation and their risk is higher than our students. Three teachers in Arizona just got COVID while meeting at the school to teach online summer classes. One of them died. The other two are still ill, weeks later. So prevention and protection measures need to include protecting teachers and staff.
Identifying the risks is key. Arrival and departures are high risk times (including riding the bus to and from), recess, lunch, library time, changing classes, bathroom breaks, gym, choir, music and athletics are also all high risk activities. Extracurricular activities could be as well depending on the activity. Large, crowded classrooms are a risk. Any prevention plan should include plans for reducing the risk associated with these activities.

We also need to remember that MIS-C is a life threatening disease that is a "side effect" of children being exposed to COVID-19.

Most likely your school is going to open. As a parent, teacher, or staff member you need to know the prevention plan at your school. You want to ask questions to assure they have a quality, well developed plan. Some things to ask/know - 1) did they include a public health professional, epidemiologist or infection prevention specialist in the plan development? 2) Do they have a plan for high risk students, teachers and staff? i.e. what about people who can't be there or don't feel safe doing so? Is there an option for them? 3) Do they have a plan for when someone tests positive? Because most likely someone will. 4) what is the plan to reduce each of the risk areas listed above? 5) does their plan involve more than screening and cleaning? Because that is not enough.

Cont....6) Do they have a plan for what to do if teachers become ill in large numbers? 7) Do they have a testing plan they have coordinated with public health officials and testing centers to get real-time information? 8) what is their communication plan with parents? 9) Did they purchase air filters specifically designed to reduce viral spread? 10) what is their plan B should it not be safe to open or stay open? 11) What PPE will they be providing teachers and staff? Will they be providing any PPE to students? Are they requiring its use? What are they doing about non-compliance? Because the best plan in the world is worthless if people don't follow it.

Ask questions. Lots of questions. Then make the decision that is best for you and your family.

FINAL THOUGHTS: You have to make the decisions that are right for you and your family. Be informed and then make those decisions. Do not feel bad for that. Let others make the decisions that are right for them. Right now we need each other. We need to support and uphold each other. We need to ask questions and seek truth, do not feel bad about that. We are starting another week - if models are correct it is going to be a rough one. Support each other, be kind, reach out and offer each other encouragement. Together we can do this.
Nothing she said disagrees with what I said. Your the one that's been screaming the sky is falling we are all gonna die. She is talking about risk assessment and getting the schools opened safely. She is not saying don't open them. You are.
 
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We are about to cancel college football season. But that sand sure feels nice and safe and warm around your ears, doesn't it.

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So I have my head in the sand because I think comparing a country to a city is an odd comparison? Of course it is apples to oranges. I wouldn’t compare Miami to all of Italy.
 
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https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1282415497447976965?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1282415497447976965%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fkoanewsradio.iheart.com%2F
Didn't take long for this to not age well. 132 deaths announced in Florida today a new high, previous was 119 according to worldometer. It was also last week. The four highest daily death tolls in Florida have occurred in the last week.
 

Bowers2

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Didn't take long for this to not age well. 132 deaths announced in Florida today a new high, previous was 119 according to worldometer. It was also last week. The four highest daily death tolls in Florida have occurred in the last week.
I think it's about time for the new hot spots to learn from NYC's mistakes and successes. They had their first 0 death day.
 

sc5mu93

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My kids school district just announced their plans for reopening. Both distance and in-person learning will be available which may be reviewed and changed every 9 weeks. Superintendent was very candid and blunt in stating that teachers are scared and this will be difficult. I expect many teachers will quit or retire because of this. We are opting to do distance learning for all three kids for the first 9 weeks. We have the luxury of being able to be home - so we are removing our kids from the equation right now. We are hoping to create more room for other kids whose parents don't have that luxury and need their kids in school so they can work.
My older kids will be fine with distance learning, but my 6 year old is ASD and needs the socialization. At this point, we decided it's not worth the risk and we will figure something else out.

Very disappointing that previous covid gains have been squandered.
 

Boomer.....

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son of a bitch. I had a bet with my wife that we wouldn't be anywhere close to 1000 today
Yeah that was a huge jump! Obviously we'll see much lower numbers the rest of the week until next Tuesday. Hopefully we can see some sort of a plateau soon.

Does anyone think we will hit a peak on new cases with the small amount of precautions in place? The mandatory mask policies by some cities should help, but not sure that will be enough to slow the growth.
 

Deere Poke

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As to that assertion, the burden of proof is on you. So prove it.
Hitlers rise to power and WW2 were direct results of an economic collapse. As were Moa's and Stalins rise to power. Not sure but it seems those events directly tied to economic collapse may have caused a couple of deaths.

Do you really think for one minute history won't repeat itself when some power hungry dictators can assume power for a loaf of bread.
 

RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
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Hitlers rise to power and WW2 were direct results of an economic collapse. As were Moa's and Stalins rise to power. Not sure but it seems those events directly tied to economic collapse may have caused a couple of deaths.

Do you really think for one minute history won't repeat itself when some power hungry dictators can assume power for a loaf of bread.
Oh, sure, we're totally going to have a fascist revolution and world war that's going to leave 50 million dead. Oh, and Trump is Hitler! #OrangeManBad

eye rolling.jpg
 

RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
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Nothing she said disagrees with what I said. Your the one that's been screaming the sky is falling we are all gonna die. She is talking about risk assessment and getting the schools opened safely. She is not saying don't open them. You are.
I'm not going to go through point by point because your cognitive dissonance won't allow you to admit that you're wrong. But consider this:

What you said:
That is science, they are still learning and aren't willing to say the two groups can not spread the disease but the risk of spread from the two groups is very low near 0.

What she said:
While there is much that is unknown, we do know that children (under 16) seem to be less likely to develop severe COVID-19 than adults. They also seem to be less likely to spread it. How many children exactly have gotten it we can't know because right now many children are considerably less social than they were before the outbreak (i.e. they are staying home) and many states aren't testing children at all unless they end up hospitalized.

What you said is that transmission is near 0. What she said, that while it appears to be low, we don't know what transmission is because we sent children home at the beginning of the pandemic and many states haven't been testing children. There is a world apart between those two statements. One is scientific, one isn't. One minimizes the problem, one urges caution.

But, what do I know, I'm a far lefty.
 

Binman4OSU

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Maybe this is obvious and I’m just not thinking clearly, but why are the deaths reported never in they last 24 hours?
By Oklahoma Law
3. Deaths related to disease which might constitute a threat to public health;

Require an investigation OR autopsy be done by the State ME office. This delays the report directly to the public because the ME office has to execute an investigation into the death