The Market Thread

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Nov 6, 2010
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The safest place to be is Government Bonds, and then there are some alternative investments that attempt to do well even in bad markets.



However, I would caution you in pulling everything out. The worst mistakes people make is they get out, and miss out on the upside and then it is very hard to get back in the market at the right time. I’ve just seen too many times where people predict a recession or market crash that never happens, or they don’t get back in at or near a low because “it just doesn’t feel right.” Remember, the market dropped this year and then started to recover March 23, not when things were getting better but rather when we were just in the beginning of lock down.



Travel stocks, energy stocks a few others are already down 50%, so already pricing in a recession, what’s not priced in is mass bankruptcies. Growth stocks like technology are pricing that there is a fundamental change in how our economy works. So, you’re saying is people will stop on-line shopping (Amazon), stop buying cell phones (Apple), and stop using zoom, working from home, etc. Not to mention the amount of money the government is pouring into the economy.



Ameriprise has a price target on the S&P at 3050, which is roughly 7% lower. I think a better approach is to reduce the amount of stocks in the portfolio rather than get out completely.

This was from my FA , when I told him to move it to safety..[/QUOT

Says the guy who is getting out due to a possible election result. Come on man.
 

NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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Market plunged first thing the day after Trump was elected, and then it was off to the races. It was only after his ham-handed China rhetoric started that the market started taking a big hit.
 

steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
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Mar 31, 2004
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The safest place to be is Government Bonds, and then there are some alternative investments that attempt to do well even in bad markets.



However, I would caution you in pulling everything out. The worst mistakes people make is they get out, and miss out on the upside and then it is very hard to get back in the market at the right time. I’ve just seen too many times where people predict a recession or market crash that never happens, or they don’t get back in at or near a low because “it just doesn’t feel right.” Remember, the market dropped this year and then started to recover March 23, not when things were getting better but rather when we were just in the beginning of lock down.
I think timing the market is difficult and takes an ability to admit when evidence tells you that you are wrong and take a small hit beyond what most of us have. But, I don't believe it is impossible like some do.

I no longer have the time. I have two jobs and I don't even pretend. I'm just indexing. Now that commissions are free I do it every day. I have created a spreadsheet that calculates this for me. The basic premise is that I will have my indexed ETFs rise by a certain dollar amount every day. If the market is rising faster than the amount I need it to rise, I don't buy. If it is rising way fast, it sometimes has me sell. If the market falls, even though I might only have it set where my account rises (for example) $1000 each day, that might require a $6700 purchase to get there. I have played around and backtested and have added factors for increased buying/selling depending on moving averages and avoiding wash sales. As long as there is no market catastrophe if I am able to follow this I will be just fine in retirement. Now that it is done, the only hard part is I have to spend a minute or two every night putting in the orders. Nearly everything else is in bonds.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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Market plunged first thing the day after Trump was elected, and then it was off to the races. It was only after his ham-handed China rhetoric started that the market started taking a big hit.
My dumb ass freaked out when he started talking "fire and fury" with NK, and sold out. Learned my lesson, the only thing coming out of his mouth that should have mattered to an investor was "tax cut". Same goes for anyone that thinks a Biden election is going to be significant. The senate flipping, maybe, but even then, it will be a minor correction at most, then back to business as usual. Now if Jerome Powell gets assassinated and is replaced by Rand Paul, you've got a reason to sell.
 

NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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My dumb ass freaked out when he started talking "fire and fury" with NK, and sold out. Learned my lesson, the only thing coming out of his mouth that should have mattered to an investor was "tax cut". Same goes for anyone that thinks a Biden election is going to be significant. The senate flipping, maybe, but even then, it will be a minor correction at most, then back to business as usual. Now if Jerome Powell gets assassinated and is replaced by Rand Paul, you've got a reason to sell.
A lot of Biden's rhetoric is around repealing the 2017 tax cuts, but those expire in 2022 anyway which will place a burden on corporate profits. I've always wondered what the effect would be if once the Democrats do begin taxing all dividends and capital gains as ordinary income. Right now dividends and long-term cap gains are taxed at 15% with a 3.5% surtax on investment income over $250,000. I've got to think that this would be tough on many retirees who rely on investment income to maintain their lifestyles....and not just wealthy ones.
 

steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
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Mar 31, 2004
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A lot of Biden's rhetoric is around repealing the 2017 tax cuts, but those expire in 2022 anyway which will place a burden on corporate profits. I've always wondered what the effect would be if once the Democrats do begin taxing all dividends and capital gains as ordinary income. Right now dividends and long-term cap gains are taxed at 15% with a 3.5% surtax on investment income over $250,000. I've got to think that this would be tough on many retirees who rely on investment income to maintain their lifestyles....and not just wealthy ones.
If you make $250k, the dems see you as wealthy. I’ve always thought that was a big flaw in their rhetoric. They talk about private jets and yachts then when the policy roles around it starts at these numbers. $250k is doing very well but you aren’t even in the same zip code as the jet and yacht people.
 

okstate987

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Oct 17, 2009
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Gold hit an all time high today and silver is up and other 6%. With a weakening dollar and the fed doing everything to keep the stock market up, it has been ideal conditions.
 
Sep 6, 2012
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Edmond
Wall Street hates biden. I am not getting out, just safety. I have to protect myself because I am vlose to retirement. I don't have time to catch the rebound.
 

okstate987

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Oct 17, 2009
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Wall Street hates biden. I am not getting out, just safety. I have to protect myself because I am vlose to retirement. I don't have time to catch the rebound.
Invest in gold then, its very stable and a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar. You may end up gaining quite a bit in the process.
 
Oct 30, 2007
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HFT has probably skewed these numbers somewhat over the past 20-30 years, but it appears to have peaked & leveled off after the financial crisis. The recent increase in speculation can probably be attributed to the markets becoming more accessible to retail traders. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds long term.

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oks10

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Sep 9, 2007
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I don't have a whole lot of value discussion to add BUT I did check my 401(k) yesterday and I'm at a +.4% return for the year! That's a HELL of a lot better than the -30% I was at when all this crap hit in March...
 

RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
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If you make $250k, the dems see you as wealthy. I’ve always thought that was a big flaw in their rhetoric. They talk about private jets and yachts then when the policy roles around it starts at these numbers. $250k is doing very well but you aren’t even in the same zip code as the jet and yacht people.
$250k, heck, you make $150k they see you as wealthy. They won't even let me on a private yacht and I'm probably going to have to work until I'm 90, and the Dems still want all my money.
 

NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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If you make $250k, the dems see you as wealthy. I’ve always thought that was a big flaw in their rhetoric. They talk about private jets and yachts then when the policy roles around it starts at these numbers. $250k is doing very well but you aren’t even in the same zip code as the jet and yacht people.
My big concern still lies with taxing all long term capital gains and dividend income as regular income. A lot of the non-rich would get swept up in this.
 
Sep 6, 2012
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Edmond
Invest in gold then, its very stable and a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar. You may end up gaining quite a bit in the process.
Already did and sold all of it at 2009 per oz , bought at 1300. Of course I sell my gold about this time every year. I will buy more in the spring when its down again. It always does. You can look back through my posts here, I'm big on gold. My best friend / FA gets pissed at me, he wants that money lol
 

okstate987

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Oct 17, 2009
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Do you buy physical or ETF/Index or mining company stock or...?
I have been buying paper metals and mining stocks: SLV, GLD, GDX, GDXJ, AG primarily. I probably should diversity into physical soon though. There is already $5 handling fees on silver because of the demand. The dollar is not the only currency weakening, in fact gold has been reaching record highs in many other currencies for ~18 months. The more money that is printed, the more precious metals will be worth--at least in dollars.