7 point dog going into Ames

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Cimarron

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I think he's saying the point spread changes based on how much the person in front of you bets. Before you place your bet a superfast computer has already calculated which way the line needs to move to get the total dollars back to that magical 50/50 split - or whatever split their proprietary algorithm determines is best.
Gotcha, but I don't think the point spread bounces around that often from 1 bet to another.
 

llcoolw

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Feb 7, 2005
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Gotcha, but I don't think the point spread bounces around that often from 1 bet to another.
Just did again. Went from 72% of the money on us to 71% and spread back to 7.

covers.com will have a lot of this in one place to see. There are literally over 100 oddsmakers. You can shop for best spreads. Make them compete with each other. In Oklahoma, this is illegal. That said…the police have known for decades that almost ever single bar in the state gets parlay sheets. All you gotta do is ask the bartender for one. Once you do that a couple of weeks, someone will make themselves known to you that you can call anytime and place a wager. These bookies are the lowest and will add extravagant spreads. And desperate people will take them. I imagine in Oklahoma the spread is -4. And in Iowa it’s probably -8. And books know this and will lay off their action with each other. Everyone wins but you.
 

llcoolw

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I’m redoing the points for ISU. Throwing out completely the unlv (0-6) and the Ku (1-5) because everyone they play has the same results.

In doing so their offense is 95/4 = 23.75
Their defense is 88/4 = 22

Giving them a positive score of 1.75
Compared to our positive score of 8.5 ( see post #70)
8.5-1.75= ARE YOU READY FOR THIS, 6.75 TO US!

I would give 3 more to them cause that’s the kind of guy I am ( not really it’s for home advantage) and I would say Pokes win by 4.
 
Oct 11, 2008
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The problem with these "systems" to determine what the spread SHOULD be is that none of them account for the fact that every game is different. These aren't robots programmed to play a certain way. They are young men heavily influenced by the eddies and currents of how the game unfolds.

In other words, I'll take OSU by 10. They have a knack for adjusting to adversity. Iowa State hasn't showed me any indication that they fight back when things are going poorly for them.
 
Nov 25, 2009
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Most betting arguments are that the stiff against the run Defenses and the running games are going to cancels each other.

Now it is up to the passing games ....and comparing the two starting QBs...the national eyes and statistical data are going to give it to Brock Purdy over SS.
SS TD : Int ratio of 6 : 5 is not going to help.

For us Pokes fans, we knew SS is erratic and consistently inconsistently. We are hoping the good SS shows up.
 
Oct 29, 2004
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Most betting arguments are that the stiff against the run Defenses and the running games are going to cancels each other.

Now it is up to the passing games ....and comparing the two starting QBs...the national eyes and statistical data are going to give it to Brock Purdy over SS.
SS TD : Int ratio of 6 : 5 is not going to help.

For us Pokes fans, we knew SS is erratic and consistently inconsistently. We are hoping the good SS shows up.
I would take the SS that makes a decision. The indecisive SS plays no where near his capabilities.
 
Apr 7, 2006
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Iowa State's loss to Iowa wasn't given the same consideration because of 4 turnovers. Now I'm not really sure why people don't take losing to Baylor more seriously. They were even in turnovers and way ahead in penalty yardage and offense but gave up a special team's score. Seems like it wasn't a fluke.
 
Aug 13, 2005
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Maybe we play so good in Ames is due to their field grass being rated as #1 grass field in all of NCAA. I wish there was a rule that natural grass was mandatory in NCAA to have standards and nix blue and red fields. Maybe ISU needs to let the field grow to slow down the visitors.
 

Duke Silver

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Maybe we play so good in Ames is due to their field grass being rated as #1 grass field in all of NCAA. I wish there was a rule that natural grass was mandatory in NCAA to have standards and nix blue and red fields. Maybe ISU needs to let the field grow to slow down the visitors.
They already do that.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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I’m redoing the points for ISU. Throwing out completely the unlv (0-6) and the Ku (1-5) because everyone they play has the same results.

In doing so their offense is 95/4 = 23.75
Their defense is 88/4 = 22

Giving them a positive score of 1.75
Compared to our positive score of 8.5 ( see post #70)
8.5-1.75= ARE YOU READY FOR THIS, 6.75 TO US!

I would give 3 more to them cause that’s the kind of guy I am ( not really it’s for home advantage) and I would say Pokes win by 4.
I simple terms, ISU has earned their high defensive ranking by beating up on 3 of the worst offenses in college football - UNLV, Iowa and KU. On the other hand, we’ve earned our defensive stats against 3 very good offenses (UT, BU and TU) and 2 decent offense (KSU and BSU).


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llcoolw

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Maybe we play so good in Ames is due to their field grass being rated as #1 grass field in all of NCAA. I wish there was a rule that natural grass was mandatory in NCAA to have standards and nix blue and red fields. Maybe ISU needs to let the field grow to slow down the visitors.
This is one of variables in their logarithms.
 

llcoolw

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Feb 7, 2005
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I simple terms, ISU has earned their high defensive ranking by beating up on 3 of the worst offenses in college football - UNLV, Iowa and KU. On the other hand, we’ve earned our defensive stats against 3 very good offenses (UT, BU and TU) and 2 decent offense (KSU and BSU).


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That’s why I threw two out completely. I see where the big shots got their spreads from, by weighing the averages down on those really two soft teams. I don’t do this anymore but they rate the refs, the grass, the wind, the sun (east west vs north south), the coaching staff, the key players and any social media concerning them, streaks, 10 game stats, 5 game stats, 3 game stats, history vs same team, historical money lines, historical spreads, alumni support and there’s still more, team moral, legal issues, administrative pressures.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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I simple terms, ISU has earned their high defensive ranking by beating up on 3 of the worst offenses in college football - UNLV, Iowa and KU. On the other hand, we’ve earned our defensive stats against 3 very good offenses (UT, BU and TU) and 2 decent offense (KSU and BSU).


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That’s why I threw two out completely. I see where the big shots got their spreads from, by weighing the averages down on those really two soft teams. I don’t do this anymore but they rate the refs, the grass, the wind, the sun (east west vs north south), the coaching staff, the key players and any social media concerning them, streaks, 10 game stats, 5 game stats, 3 game stats, history vs same team, historical money lines, historical spreads, alumni support and there’s still more, team moral, legal issues, administrative pressures.
Why does every sports book essentially post the same spread? Yeah, I know there may be a half to a point difference, but that’s just to balance an individual book’s bets. In this case when the spread makes no sense, it tells me the initial spread comes from a single source.


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llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
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Why does every sports book essentially post the same spread? Yeah, I know there may be a half to a point difference, but that’s just to balance an individual book’s bets. In this case when the spread makes no sense, it tells me the initial spread comes from a single source.


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Reminder Sam Rostein from casino?
https://www.historyvshollywood.com/reelfaces/casino/

Was Sam the best handicapper in America?
According to Sports Illustrated, Frank Rosenthal is "one of the greatest living experts on sports gambling". -Sports Illustrated article "The Biggest Game in Town"

He set them as little as 20 years ago. All of them.
 
Sep 29, 2011
3,713
920
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Breckenridge, CO
Why does every sports book essentially post the same spread? Yeah, I know there may be a half to a point difference, but that’s just to balance an individual book’s bets. In this case when the spread makes no sense, it tells me the initial spread comes from a single source.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Reminder Sam Rostein from casino?
https://www.historyvshollywood.com/reelfaces/casino/

Was Sam the best handicapper in America?
According to Sports Illustrated, Frank Rosenthal is "one of the greatest living experts on sports gambling". -Sports Illustrated article "The Biggest Game in Town"

He set them as little as 20 years ago. All of them.
Okay, but are every sports book’s lines initially set by a single entity?


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