Athlon: Are Mike Gundy's Cowboys true contenders for the College Football Playoff?

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Rack

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#22
So if every other P5 conference champ has two or more losses and we only have one there's no doubt that we still won't make the playoff?

Okay, guy.
I agree with him...If we lose an unnecessary championship game they will find a way to keep us out regardless...media and market share are king and not fairness. Been around too long not to realize this.
 

OSUMIKE17

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#25
I agree with him...If we lose an unnecessary championship game they will find a way to keep us out regardless...media and market share are king and not fairness. Been around too long not to realize this.
Yeah, sorry but your pessimism based on a past system has nothing to do with this year and this playoff system.

If you honestly believe there is "no way" a one loss OSU team is getting in over a two loss team from another conference then I just don't know what to tell you.
 

Rack

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#26
Yeah, sorry but your pessimism based on a past system has nothing to do with this year and this playoff system.

If you honestly believe there is "no way" a one loss OSU team is getting in over a two loss team from another conference then I just don't know what to tell you.
What I'm saying is that IF we were to lose the championship game (our last game of the year)...They...the committee ...will find a way to leave us out over bigger name (blue blood) schools...just how I see things happening. We fix that by not losing any games...

But yes, IMHO, we won't get the benefit of the doubt in that scenario over an SEC champion Alabama...even if they have two losses...OR a Big 12 Champion OU with two losses to KSU and OSU on the road and a win over us in the final...Just sucks, but IMHO it is reality...and if you have been on this board for any time at all you know I'm far from a pessimist.

In fact, right now, I think we will be favored in all our games, can (and should) win them all and automatically get in.
 

OSUMIKE17

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#27
What I'm saying is that IF we were to lose the championship game (our last game of the year)...They...the committee ...will find a way to leave us out over bigger name (blue blood) schools...just how I see things happening. We fix that by not losing any games...
Yeah, that's ridiculous considering you don't even know who the other teams will be that get into the playoff. Washington got in last year. Are they a "blueblood?"

So hypothetically, you're saying if we have one loss and Washington has two that Washington will still definitely get in before we do? That's absurd.
But yes, IMHO, we won't get the benefit of the doubt in that scenario over an SEC champion Alabama...even if they have two losses...OR a Big 12 Champion OU with two losses to KSU and OSU on the road and a win over us in the final...Just sucks, but IMHO it is reality...and if you have been on this board for any time at all you know I'm far from a pessimist.

In fact, right now, I think we will be favored in all our games, can (and should) win them all and automatically get in.
Again, you're talking about two whole programs to make your point when there are four playoff spots.

You're also making the assumption that OU won't have three losses. Don't forget they go to Ohio State as well.

It's ridiculous to automatically assume that we won't get a playoff spot without considering all of the outside factors that could take place.
 

PrincetonPoke23

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#28
New coach or not, MG needs to get over the mental block he has against OU. I won't feel confident about that game until we prove that we can beat them on a consistent, or at least more frequent, basis. I see us winning handily in the rest of these games though :pistols::thumbup::osu:
 

osueepe

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#29
I love the optimism and hope we have the wins as shown. If the2 games are toss ups, then we should split making us 12-1. Two losses leaves us out of the playoffs. We might get in w/1 loss. I certainly would like to be in the playoffs. I want to believe but feel we probably won't get in the playoffs.
Nightmare scenario- we beat UO regular season with UO already losing to tOSU, but lose to UO in championship game. UO would claim bid to final four because of championship.


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#30
I like it that Athlons has us winning all but 2 games and those two are basically a toss up in their analysis minds (we are almost always underrated by these mags). @WVU is a tough spot to play...but we should NOT lose that game, and OU @home with a new head coach better be a win. This is the first year that I believe I've ever picked us to go undefeated in the regular season...but I think it's very possible...maybe for the first time in my life. I think we will be favored on game day of every single game we play with the possible exception of the semi early game at WVU.

Games of concern in order are:

1. OU @home...but they have a new coach and it's early so I expect a win here. 60% OSU win.
2. WVU on the road...we have had their number but they play great ball at home. I think we win this even if it's a crazy night game because I doubt they will be able to match up offensively with us. 65% OSU win.
3. Texas on the road...new coach and new excitement in Austin...but we haven't lost in Austin in a long time and I don't see this being the team to do so. 70% OSU win
4. Pitt on the road...a salty team who had us on the ropes last year with lots of players returning...Still I think we win. 71% OSU win
5. KSU @home...Snyder is a great coach and this is rumored to be his last stand...he has a good core returning and we had to come back on the road to beat them last year...looked bad until the fourth quarter which is interesting considering it's a Snyder team. 72% OSU win
6. Baylor @home...They have had our number but they have a new staff and likely just aren't going to be as good. 75% OSU win
7. ISU on the road...crazy games happen in Iowa and we had to pull off an epic come back last year in a clunker of a game early. 78% OSU win
8. TU @home...First game out of the gate...TU's coach scares me. 80% OSU win
9. South Bama road.. 85% OSU win
10. TCU @home...This low...yep, IMHO. 90% OSU win
11. KU home...they will be improved but not in Stillwater for the final game of the season...we can't overlook to the Championship so we won't... 99% OSU win
Assuming your probabilities, the odds are almost 20 to 1 against OSU finishing undefeated (4.9% chance of undefeated season).


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Rack

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#32
Yeah, that's ridiculous considering you don't even know who the other teams will be that get into the playoff. Washington got in last year. Are they a "blueblood?"

So hypothetically, you're saying if we have one loss and Washington has two that Washington will still definitely get in before we do? That's absurd.

Again, you're talking about two whole programs to make your point when there are four playoff spots.

You're also making the assumption that OU won't have three losses. Don't forget they go to Ohio State as well.

It's ridiculous to automatically assume that we won't get a playoff spot without considering all of the outside factors that could take place.
Certainly it's obviously conjecture...and I hope you are correct...but experience tells me that likely we would get bumped for a 2 loss PAC champ USC...not a Washington...A 2 loss Big 10 champ Ohio State...maybe not a Michigan State...a 2 loss ACC champ Florida State...An OU or a Texas with 2 losses if either was to beat us in the Championship game...Just is what it is when you lose the last game of the year and don't win your conference...I'm saying we can't get in with a loss in our conference championship game being that it's the Big 12 and the national media thinks we are the 4th or 5th best conference at best...if that loss was to occur in our title game...time will tell and I hope we win them all (especially that last one) and don't have to even worry.

Btw, it's way to early to discuss this stuff...Beat Tulsa!!
 

OSUMIKE17

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#33
Certainly it's obviously conjecture...and I hope you are correct...but experience tells me that likely we would get bumped for a 2 loss PAC champ USC...not a Washington...A 2 loss Big 10 champ Ohio State...maybe not a Michigan State...a 2 loss ACC champ Florida State...An OU or a Texas with 2 losses if either was to beat us in the Championship game...Just is what it is when you lose the last game of the year and don't win your conference...I'm saying we can't get in with a loss in our conference championship game being that it's the Big 12 and the national media thinks we are the 4th or 5th best conference at best...if that loss was to occur in our title game...time will tell and I hope we win them all (especially that last one) and don't have to even worry.

Btw, it's way to early to discuss this stuff...Beat Tulsa!!
So you're saying we won't get in if a very specific and small amount of teams end up with a very specific and small amount of losses.

And this is the foregone conclusion of what is going to happen if we end up with a single loss the CCG.

Sure, guy. Sure.
 

SLVRBK

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#34
So you're saying we won't get in if a very specific and small amount of teams end up with a very specific and small amount of losses.

And this is the foregone conclusion of what is going to happen if we end up with a single loss the CCG.

Sure, guy. Sure.
Championships will matter to the selection committee again.
 

OSUMIKE17

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#35
Championships will matter to the selection committee again.
I'm not saying they won't necessarily, just saying that another loss or two may weigh heavier.

It shouldn't be a foregone conclusion that OSU wouldn't make the playoff with a single loss.
 

SLVRBK

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#36
I'm not saying they won't necessarily, just saying that another loss or two may weigh heavier.

It shouldn't be a foregone conclusion that OSU wouldn't make the playoff with a single loss.
From all of the committee's 2016 offseason talk it should have been a forgone conclusion that tOSU would not have made the playoff.
 

bacowboy

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#37
Certainly it's obviously conjecture...and I hope you are correct...but experience tells me that likely we would get bumped for a 2 loss PAC champ USC...not a Washington...A 2 loss Big 10 champ Ohio State...maybe not a Michigan State...a 2 loss ACC champ Florida State...An OU or a Texas with 2 losses if either was to beat us in the Championship game...Just is what it is when you lose the last game of the year and don't win your conference...I'm saying we can't get in with a loss in our conference championship game being that it's the Big 12 and the national media thinks we are the 4th or 5th best conference at best...if that loss was to occur in our title game...time will tell and I hope we win them all (especially that last one) and don't have to even worry.

Btw, it's way to early to discuss this stuff...Beat Tulsa!!
Experience tells you:confused:
 

Rack

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#38
So you're saying we won't get in if a very specific and small amount of teams end up with a very specific and small amount of losses.

And this is the foregone conclusion of what is going to happen if we end up with a single loss the CCG.

Sure, guy. Sure.
Yep, the very specific and small amount of teams ranked currently in the top five or six in most pre season rankings..

so, yeah.I would lay $100 bucks and a hideaway pizza that IF we lose in an unecessary conference championship game we won't sniff the playoff...right now I'm predicting that we won't lose so the point will, hopefully, be moot. But I retain that the champion of the conference will be the only team that will sniff the playoff..and if it's not us, fair or unfair, we won't go.
 

Rack

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#39
Experience tells you:confused:
2011/12 LSU vs BAMA part 2...pretty clearly we got the shaft...I experienced that.

CMU last year...we got the shaft...I experienced that.

Bedlam 1988 phantom personal foul...I experienced that.


Yep experience...
 

bacowboy

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#40
2011/12 LSU vs BAMA part 2...pretty clearly we got the shaft...I experienced that.

CMU last year...we got the shaft...I experienced that.

Bedlam 1988 phantom personal foul...I experienced that.


Yep experience...
:facepalm: