Covid-19

[steross]

https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1327740997078380544?s=20

So, all of us front line workers saying that we have no bed space are lying, and "Justin Hart" some random guy on Twitter claiming to "unravel COVID fears one at a time" is right about the hospital situation.
Sure. Another amazing conspiracy uncovered. Millions of health care workers in on fleecing the nation into thinking they are busy while they sit at work and play cards.

 

[oks10]

Both our family Thanksgivings have been cancelled. For me personally, it's not so much the current new case rates as it is that we're starting to have people that are just 1 deg of separation from us and our relatives testing positive. It's no longer just a number on the news or "I know someone who's friend's sibling got it". My wife has had 3 coworkers at her school test positive with 3 more waiting on test results in the past week and numerous students either showing symptoms or having people in their household testing positive... At this point it's just as much about trying not to get it ourselves as it is about trying not to accidentally give it to our 65+ year old parents. To me that's more important than pounding my chest about "not living in fear"...

 

[LS1 Z28]

So, all of us front line workers saying that we have no bed space are lying, and "Justin Hart" some random guy on Twitter claiming to "unravel COVID fears one at a time" is right about the hospital situation.
Sure. Another amazing conspiracy uncovered. Millions of health care workers in on fleecing the nation into thinking they are busy while they sit at work and play cards.

Those statistics are interesting, but I wonder if they would look much different if they only looked at ICU beds? Overall hospitalization rates may not matter that much if they're counting a lot of rooms that aren't capable of holding COVID patients.

 

[steross]

Those statistics are interesting, but I wonder if they would look much different if they only looked at ICU beds? Overall hospitalization rates may not matter that much if they're counting a lot of rooms that aren't capable of holding COVID patients.

Or have no staff.

This is the failure of when clinicians handed the management of health care in this country over to administrators and bean counters. They lie with numbers all the time as their goals do not align with the patients.

 

[Rack]

Can it not be determined for sure that this is a seasonal illness? Kind of like Flu and cold's. Seems like it is now, as infection rates were much lower in the summer and higher last spring and now. We need that vaccine to get going and be successful. We can enjoy family and be extra cautious and safe...that may mean we don't do a traditional thanksgiving, but it's also not drunk driving to have a dinner. It's always been a balancing act, don't be stupid, take numerous precautions or cancel the visit all together. I'm going through this as well...who's not, in this crazy year? Such a bucket of suck...But, let's all take heart that a vaccine is coming...and, maybe, just maybe, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. It's not a time to be careless, when we are so close to the finish line. God Speed everyone.

 

[UrbanCowboy1]

https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1327740997078380544?s=20

Can you explain this to me? He says "Nationally, utilization (occupancy %) stands at about 70% which is about 3.1% higher than the national average from years past but again - because the AHA does NOT provide time series - we estimate that November will seasonably be about 1 to 5% higher than the average" He's giving numbers for November in his original tweet and then says November's numbers are an estimate. And then he even goes on to acknowledge that several states are 20% over their expected census numbers. Lastly, he doesn't seem to realize that even a 10% jump is pushing limits. Hospitals don't run on excess, just like you don't fuel up an airplane to the max if you only need half a tank to get to your destination: the extra weight becomes a detriment.

This tweet reeks of razzmatazz math. There's more to statistics than putting on a suit and taking a profile picture for your twitter handle.

 

[UrbanCowboy1]

So, all of us front line workers saying that we have no bed space are lying, and "Justin Hart" some random guy on Twitter claiming to "unravel COVID fears one at a time" is right about the hospital situation.
Sure. Another amazing conspiracy uncovered. Millions of health care workers in on fleecing the nation into thinking they are busy while they sit at work and play cards.

Don't forget the thousands of companies doing business with you! We're in on the take as well.

In a moment of sobriety... I was up til 2AM last night trying to figure out how were going to solve supply gaps, but I want there to be as few shortages in supplies as possible. I'm stressing out over this and I don't even interact with patients. It's so frustrating to have friends and family with no insight to say "meh, it's no big deal/it's all fake - scamdemic". I just want to say thanks to you, @steross and @docjoctoo and any other medical peeps out there. I can't imagine spending a 12 hour shift trying to save people's lives day after day, putting your own life at risk, watching patients pass and then you go home to hear "fake news!".

 

[Bay Area Poke]

Can it not be determined for sure that this is a seasonal illness? Kind of like Flu and cold's. Seems like it is now, as infection rates were much lower in the summer and higher last spring and now. We need that vaccine to get going and be successful. We can enjoy family and be extra cautious and safe...that may mean we don't do a traditional thanksgiving, but it's also not drunk driving to have a dinner. It's always been a balancing act, don't be stupid, take numerous precautions or cancel the visit all together. I'm going through this as well...who's not, in this crazy year? Such a bucket of suck...But, let's all take heart that a vaccine is coming...and, maybe, just maybe, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. It's not a time to be careless, when we are so close to the finish line. God Speed everyone.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1327979839836594177?s=20

 

[steross]

Can it not be determined for sure that this is a seasonal illness? Kind of like Flu and cold's. Seems like it is now, as infection rates were much lower in the summer and higher last spring and now. We need that vaccine to get going and be successful. We can enjoy family and be extra cautious and safe...that may mean we don't do a traditional thanksgiving, but it's also not drunk driving to have a dinner. It's always been a balancing act, don't be stupid, take numerous precautions or cancel the visit all together. I'm going through this as well...who's not, in this crazy year? Such a bucket of suck...But, let's all take heart that a vaccine is coming...and, maybe, just maybe, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. It's not a time to be careless, when we are so close to the finish line. God Speed everyone.

They are simlar medical risk. The vast majority of drunk driving is buzzed driving and the vast majority of time they make it home OK. Particularly if they are "safe" and aren't blitzed drunk and also go slow on roads they know very well. It is an activity that approximately doubles your risk of a serious accident. Not high risk, just an unnecessary risk.
And, many years ago that kind of "drunk driving" wasn't even considered drunk driving at all. The legal limit was 0.10 to 0.15% depending on the state. Only with years of data, years of advocacy, and public service announcements has having a few drinks and carefully driving home gone from normal behavior to what you are all considering an outrageously risky assertion.
In Oklahoma County right now if you have a 15 person get-together there is a 32% chance one COVID positive person will be at the event. Saying that is not in any way comparable to the driving scenario as I stated is simply "I don't care about reality, you can't call my family T-giving like drunk driving!" My job deals with determining risk of disease all day long. You guys are reacting emotionally not with medical logic. One is no longer socially acceptable. The other still is. That doesn't change the common thread of risk.

 

[311Cowboy]

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1327979839836594177?s=20

Melbourne has had a mask mandate since July. Weird how Argentina and Brazil both have 100,000s of cases in the last two weeks. FYI, you may not know this since some random didn't tweet it but they are both in the Southern Hemisphere.

You have so many false narratives that they overlap. The key trend though is they are all just tweets. So you know, literally the lowest level of information possible.

 

[sc5mu93]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1328342056222093312

did Putin roll out a Vax a couple a months ago?

 

[Binman4OSU]

did Putin roll out a Vax a couple a months ago?

rolling out a Vax and having the infrastructure and distribution plan in place to actually vaccinate people are two very different things.

I think some people think this thing is just going to go away once the Vaccine is available and begins distribution. Like Fauci said. late 2nd qtr or 3rd qtr 2021 before any type of Normal even starts to return

 

[steross]

Melbourne has had a mask mandate since July. Weird how Argentina and Brazil both have 100,000s of cases in the last two weeks. FYI, you may not know this since some random didn't tweet it but they are both in the Southern Hemisphere.

You have so many false narratives that they overlap. The key trend though is they are all just tweets. So you know, literally the lowest level of information possible.

Mask mandate
8:00PM-5:00am curfew
No travel allowed between many Australian states.
Many other actions far beyond the absurd level we are at which is trying to get citizens to care enough to even wear a mask.

 

[Rack]

They are simlar medical risk. The vast majority of drunk driving is buzzed driving and the vast majority of time they make it home OK. Particularly if they are "safe" and aren't blitzed drunk and also go slow on roads they know very well. It is an activity that approximately doubles your risk of a serious accident. Not high risk, just an unnecessary risk.
And, many years ago that kind of "drunk driving" wasn't even considered drunk driving at all. The legal limit was 0.10 to 0.15% depending on the state. Only with years of data, years of advocacy, and public service announcements has having a few drinks and carefully driving home gone from normal behavior to what you are all considering an outrageously risky assertion.
In Oklahoma County right now if you have a 15 person get-together there is a 32% chance one COVID positive person will be at the event. Saying that is not in any way comparable to the driving scenario as I stated is simply "I don't care about reality, you can't call my family T-giving like drunk driving!" My job deals with determining risk of disease all day long. You guys are reacting emotionally not with medical logic. One is no longer socially acceptable. The other still is. That doesn't change the common thread of risk.

If one knows he/she has Covid or feels sick and attends an event anyway, or just throws caution to the wind at an event, I could see them being very similar then. When a person drinks he knows for sure he is drinking...the difference to me is knowledge of condition (i.e. knowing one is drinking vs not knowing one has covid). We cannot mitigate all risk, but we can certainly make better choices.

I'm more than likely not going to my family Thanksgiving unless we can do it outside on a sunny day with warm temps and we can socially distance (and that wouldn't be my Mom's choice anyway)... This is honestly a amazing time and the highlight of our year in our family. What if this is the last Thanksgiving I would get to spend with my parents, and I don't go? Am I being selfish by not/or attending? Am I withholding from them joy because of my fear of giving them something I don't know that I have? OR Am I saving them for next years celebration by not attending? Will I selfishly place blame on another family member / loved one that does attend if they get sick? Ultimately my faith tells me that God heals the sick and that he protects his children and that he has greater for us on the other side of this life anyway...This is why my folk are going to have Thanksgiving anyway, because they are believers and don't really fear death right now...All these are questions that I and other Americans are asking themselves this year...questions we have never had to ask in the past. What a year...These are very hard discussions and decisions.

 

[steross]

If one knows he/she has Covid or feels sick and attends an event anyway, or just throws caution to the wind at an event, I could see them being very similar then. When a person drinks he knows for sure he is drinking...the difference to me is knowledge of condition (i.e. knowing one is drinking vs not knowing one has covid). We cannot mitigate all risk, but we can certainly make better choices.

I'm more than likely not going to my family Thanksgiving unless we can do it outside on a sunny day with warm temps and we can socially distance (and that wouldn't be my Mom's choice anyway)... This is honestly a amazing time and the highlight of our year in our family. What if this is the last Thanksgiving I would get to spend with my parents, and I don't go? Am I being selfish by not/or attending? Am I withholding from them joy because of my fear of giving them something I don't know that I have? OR Am I saving them for next years celebration by not attending? Will I selfishly place blame on another family member / loved one that does attend if they get sick? Ultimately my faith tells me that God heals the sick and that he protects his children and that he has greater for us on the other side of this life anyway...This is why my folk are going to have Thanksgiving anyway, because they are believers and don't really fear death right now...All these are questions that I and other Americans are asking themselves this year...questions we have never had to ask in the past. What a year...These are very hard discussions and decisions.

If you are only doing T-giving if it is a sunny day outside and you can socially distance then you have just announced the equivalent of calling an Uber in the other situation.
The risk is a non-socially distanced non-mask normal indoor extended family get together. Nobody is saying to avoid your family MORE than you would someone in the grocery store.

I guess the "I'm a believer and I don't fear death" could apply to the buzzed driving, too. The problem with that thinking for both situations is it isn't only your own death that you are leaving up to your religious beliefs.

 

[cableok]

.
In Oklahoma County right now if you have a 15 person get-together there is a 32% chance one COVID positive person will be at the event. .

As someone who believes that 46.38% of stats are made up....how do you arrive at your 32% estimate?

 

[steross]

As someone who believes that 46.38% of stats are made up....how do you arrive at your 32% estimate?

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

 

[Boomer.....]

Mask mandate
8:00PM-5:00am curfew
No travel allowed between many Australian states.
Many other actions far beyond the absurd level we are at which is trying to get citizens to care enough to even wear a mask.

Much of Europe has lock downs, travel bans, and country wide mask mandates, yet they are in the same boat we are in. I have yet to have someone respond with an explanation on why months is strict policies is not helping the spike in cases there.

 

[OSUPsych]

Much of Europe has lock downs, travel bans, and country wide mask mandates, yet they are in the same boat we are in. I have yet to have someone respond with an explanation on why months is strict policies is not helping the spike in cases there.

Lockdowns started within the last two weeks and aren't "lockdowns" the way they were at the beginning. Internal European travel has remained largely open (a few friends in the UK and Germany have traveled to other countries in the last two months without having to quarantine). Mask mandates were similar to ours with bars and restaurants largely open until recently (can't wear a mask while eating/drinking). We'll see what happens over the next week or two. If it's still bad, you're right. Otherwise, you're back to arguing about tradeoffs and secondary effects.

 

[steross]

Much of Europe has lock downs, travel bans, and country wide mask mandates, yet they are in the same boat we are in. I have yet to have someone respond with an explanation on why months is strict policies is not helping the spike in cases there.

https://time.com/5902172/europe-coronavirus-second-wave-belgium-czech-republic/